Revisiting Grand Strategy at the Inflection Point

For the last thirty years, US grand strategy has been predicated on an expansive definition of US interests and optimistic assessments of US capabilities. In the changed global conditions of the 2020s, a fresh look at American global engagement needs to determine where, when, and under what conditions the United States ought to intervene. Thinking in terms of a national security “butterfly effect” and balancing that risk assessment against the realities of the “Lippmann Gap” (where strategic aspirations cannot exceed actual capabilities) produces a series of grand strategic options for policymakers.