Keystone species in an urban environment: Do raptors control the Mexican gray squirrel in Mexico City?

Urbanization has forced animals to respond to novel environments. One of the basic questions in urban ecology is if ecological processes that occur in natural conditions also occur in urban environments. In natural ecosystems, key predators can limit prey abundance and have a widespread effect on trophic levels. Here, we examine a predator-prey interaction in Mexico City, an urban ecosystem where prey can be evaluated in the presence or absence of apex predators. Nearly all original ecosystems in Mexico City have been transformed for human purposes. Many of the green spaces in the city contain populations of the Mexican gray squirrel, a species native to this area. These green spaces are also inhabited by different species of raptors, the most frequent being Harris's hawk, Cooper's hawk, and sharp-shinned hawk. Little is known about the interactions between raptors and squirrels, particularly how different environmental factors influence this ecological relationship. We do know, however, that raptors prey on squirrels. We predicted that in parks where raptors were present, there would be fewer squirrels than in parks where there were no raptors. We studied the relationship between raptors and squirrels using occupancy models, which also allowed us to evaluate environmental factors that affect the presence of both squirrels and raptors. We also tested if the presence of raptors influenced the occupancy probability of squirrels, and vice versa. Lastly, we estimated the abundance of squirrels in parks, both where raptors were present and where they were absent. Contrary to our predictions, in our first two sampling periods we found a positive relationship between the presence of raptors and squirrel abundance, but this relationship was absent during our second two survey periods, which was due to a decline in squirrel abundance in parks where raptors were present. These results suggest that predator-prey interactions occur in urban settings much as they do under natural conditions, but that other factors unique to urbanization can also impact the abundance of raptors and squirrels. Our findings also suggest that raptors might be an effective means of controlling squirrel populations under some conditions.