Estimating the economic impact of blister-packaging on medication adherence and health care costs for a Medicare Advantage health plan.

Background: Medication nonadherence is a persistent challenge in the United States, leading to increased health care resource utilization (HCRU) and health care costs and worsened health outcomes. Medicare Star Ratings is a program developed by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) to evaluate Medicare health plan quality and performance. Three of the Medicare Part D Star Ratings quality measures assess medication adherence, showing the importance CMS places on improving medication adherence in older adults. Although a variety of medication adherence-enhancing interventions are available to help promote adherence among patients, one intervention that has shown success historically is blister-packaging.

Objective: To model the potential impact of blister-packaging chronic medications on HCRU and health care costs in the Medicare population.

Methods: An economic model was developed to assess the potential impact of blister-packaging the 3 Medicare Star Ratings adherence measure medication classes: renin-angiotensin system antagonists (RASAs), statins, and noninsulin antidiabetics. The model perspective was that of a hypothetical Medicare Advantage health plan with a plan size of 100,000 members. A 12-month time horizon was used in the model. The dichotomous adherence threshold in the model was set at 80% or greater of the proportion of days covered (PDC). Literature-based references were used to inform both the impact of blister-packaging on the number of patients who become adherent as well as the impact of medication adherence on HCRU and health care costs for each of the medication classes. One-way sensitivity analyses and several scenario analyses were conducted to assess model uncertainty.

Results: Owing to increased adherence from the blister-packaging intervention, the hypothetical health plan in the analysis saw 776 additional members adherent to RASAs, 1,651 additional members adherent to statins, and 414 additional members adherent to oral antidiabetics. Although medication expenditure increased for all 3 medication classes (RASAs: $274,963; statins: $730,083; oral antidiabetics: $100,529), medical costs decreased across all classes (RASAs: -$4,098,848; statins: -$5,549,699; oral antidiabetics: -$917,968). Total net health care costs decreased by $3,823,885 for RASAs (-$3.19 per member per month [PMPM]), $4,819,616 for statins (-$4.02 PMPM), and $817,438 for oral antidiabetics (-$0.68 PMPM). The entire Medicare Advantage population scenario analysis saw reductions in total health care costs of $1,081,394,737 for RASAs, $1,362,987,376 for statins, and $231,171,496 for oral antidiabetics.

Conclusions: Dispensing chronic medications with blister-packaging for Medicare Advantage health plan patients was modeled to reduce HCRU and health care costs. Future studies are needed to assess whether the impact of blister-packaging medications is tied to reductions in HCRU and health care costs in real-world settings.