In-host modeling of dengue virus and non-structural protein 1 and the effects of ivermectin in patients with acute dengue fever.

The increased incidence of dengue poses a substantially global public health challenge. There are no approved antiviral drugs to treat dengue infections. Ivermectin, an old anti-parasitic drug, had no effect on dengue viremia, but reduced the dengue non-structural protein 1 (NS1) in a clinical trial. This is potentially important, as NS1 may play a causal role in the pathogenesis of severe dengue. This study established an in-host model to characterize the plasma kinetics of dengue virus and NS1 with host immunity and evaluated the effects of ivermectin, using a population pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) modeling approach, based on two studies in acute dengue fever: a placebo-controlled ivermectin study in 250 adult patients and an ivermectin PK-PD study in 24 pediatric patients. The proposed model described adequately the observed ivermectin pharmacokinetics, viral load, and NS1 data. Bodyweight was a significant covariate on ivermectin pharmacokinetics. We found that ivermectin reduced NS1 with an EC₅₀ of 67.5 μg/mL. In silico simulations suggested that ivermectin should be dosed within 48 h after fever onset, and that a daily dosage of 800 μg/kg could achieve substantial NS1 reduction. The in-host dengue model is useful to assess the drug effect in antiviral drug development for dengue fever.