Monitoring river discharge from space: An optimization approach with uncertainty quantification for small ungauged rivers

The number of in-situ stations measuring river discharge, one of the Essential Climate Variables (ECV), is declining steadily, and numerous basins have never been gauged. With the aim of improving data availability worldwide, we propose an easily applicable and transferable approach to estimate reach-scale discharge solely using remote sensing data that is suitable for filling gaps in the in-situ network. We combine 20 years of satellite altimetry observations with high-resolution satellite imagery via a hypsometric function to observe large portions of the reach-scale bathymetry. The high-resolution satellite images, which are classified using deep learning image segmentation, allow for detecting small rivers (narrower than 100 m) and can capture small width variations. The unobserved part of the bathymetry is estimated using an empirical width-to-depth function. Combined with precise satellite-derived slope measurements, river discharge is calculated at multiple consecutive cross-sections within the reach. The unknown roughness coefficient is optimized by minimizing the discharge differences between the cross-sections. The approach requires minimal input and approximate boundary conditions based on expert knowledge but is not dependent on calibration. We provide realistic uncertainties, which are crucial for data assimilation, by accounting for errors and uncertainties in the different input quantities. The approach is applied globally to 27 river sections with a median normalized root mean square error of 12% and a Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency of 0.560. On average, the 90% uncertainty range includes 91% of the in-situ measurements.