StockTime:用于股价预测的时间序列专用大型语言模型架构

Shengkun Wang, Taoran Ji, Linhan Wang, Yanshen Sun, Shang-Ching Liu, Amit Kumar, Chang-Tien Lu
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摘要

股票价格预测任务在金融领域占有重要地位,对它的研究由来已久。最近,大型语言模型(LLMs)为改进这些预测带来了新方法。与预训练的小型语言模型(PLMs)相比,最近的金融大型语言模型(FinLLMs)在金融 NLP 任务方面取得了长足的进步,但在股票价格预测方面仍然存在挑战。首先,有效整合时间序列数据和自然语言模式以充分利用这些能力仍然很复杂。其次,金融语言模型更注重分析和可解释性,这可能会忽略时间序列数据的基本特征。此外,由于金融市场中存在大量虚假和冗余信息,模型在面对此类输入数据时往往无法做出准确的预测。在本文中,我们介绍了专门针对股价数据设计的基于 LLM 的新型架构 StockTime。与最近的金融 LLM 不同,StockTime 专为股票价格时间序列数据而设计。它利用 LLM 预测下一个代币的天然能力,将股票价格视为连续代币,直接从这些股票价格中提取文本信息,如股票相关性、统计趋势和时间戳。然后,StockTime 将文本和时间序列数据整合到嵌入空间中。通过融合这些多模态数据,StockTime 可以有效预测任意回溯期的股票价格。我们的实验证明,StockTime 的性能优于最近的 LLM,因为它能提供更准确的预测,同时降低内存使用率和运行成本。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
StockTime: A Time Series Specialized Large Language Model Architecture for Stock Price Prediction
The stock price prediction task holds a significant role in the financial domain and has been studied for a long time. Recently, large language models (LLMs) have brought new ways to improve these predictions. While recent financial large language models (FinLLMs) have shown considerable progress in financial NLP tasks compared to smaller pre-trained language models (PLMs), challenges persist in stock price forecasting. Firstly, effectively integrating the modalities of time series data and natural language to fully leverage these capabilities remains complex. Secondly, FinLLMs focus more on analysis and interpretability, which can overlook the essential features of time series data. Moreover, due to the abundance of false and redundant information in financial markets, models often produce less accurate predictions when faced with such input data. In this paper, we introduce StockTime, a novel LLM-based architecture designed specifically for stock price data. Unlike recent FinLLMs, StockTime is specifically designed for stock price time series data. It leverages the natural ability of LLMs to predict the next token by treating stock prices as consecutive tokens, extracting textual information such as stock correlations, statistical trends and timestamps directly from these stock prices. StockTime then integrates both textual and time series data into the embedding space. By fusing this multimodal data, StockTime effectively predicts stock prices across arbitrary look-back periods. Our experiments demonstrate that StockTime outperforms recent LLMs, as it gives more accurate predictions while reducing memory usage and runtime costs.
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