Public control of coal resources of the United States’ Powder River Basin for a managed decarbonization transition

The United States (US) has set aggressive targets for reaching a carbon pollution-free power sector by 2035 and a net-zero economy by 2050. Reaching these goals will require both rapid expansion of zero- and negative-carbon infrastructure and a phase-out of unabated fossil fuel infrastructure. New subsidy and regulatory actions focus on eliminating coal emissions at the point of consumption either through carbon capture and storage (CCS) or coal-fired power plant retirement. Yet, these pathways have opposite implications for coal production: CCS is coal intensive, while coal retirement is not. Despite a record of chaotic and harmful transition and significant social scientific research suggesting better outcomes from managed, coordinated decline, these mechanisms rely on uncoordinated private decision making by mine and plant owners. Coal mining has rapidly declined since peak production in 2008. Production has dropped by half; bankruptcies are the norm; and coal mine and power plant host communities have experienced highly disruptive decline as a result of this unmanaged transition. Given this history, we argue the current market-based, plant-driven governance approach could worsen transition challenges, including potentially stranding costly CCS investments. We argue that the US should complement its extensive investments in technology demonstrations with innovative governance demonstrations to facilitate a just energy transition. Specifically, we argue that the Powder River Basin, which is the US’ largest coal basin and consists primarily of federally leased coal, should be brought under public control for managed decline both to meet emissions reduction targets and advance a just energy transition.