Conspiratorial thinking in a 50-state survey of American adults

Background: While the NIMH Research Domain Criteria framework stresses understanding how neuropsychiatric phenotypes vary across populations, little is known outside of small clinical cohorts about conspiratorial thoughts as an aspect of cognition. Methods: We conducted a 50-state non-probability internet survey conducted in 6 waves between October 6, 2022 and January 29, 2024, with respondents age 18 and older. Respondents completed the American Conspiratorial Thinking Scale (ACTS) and the 9-item Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9). Survey-weighted regression models were used to examine sociodemographic and clinical associations with ACTS score, and associations with vaccination status. Results: Across the 6 survey waves, there were 123,781 unique individuals. After reweighting, a total of 78.6% of respondents somewhat or strongly agreed with at least one conspiratorial idea; 19.0% agreed with all four of them. More conspiratorial thoughts were reported among those age 25 - 54, males, individuals who finished high school but did not start or complete college, those with household income between $25,000 and $50,000 per year, and those who reside in rural areas, as well as those with greater levels of depressive symptoms. Endorsing more conspiratorial thoughts was associated with a significantly lower likelihood of being vaccinated against COVID-19. Discussion: A substantial proportion of US adults endorsed at least some conspiratorial thinking, which varied widely across population subgroups. The extent of correlation with non-vaccination suggests the importance of considering such thinking in designing public health strategies.