使用 CNN-LSTM 进行时间序列分析的天气预测:德里气温数据案例研究

Bangyu Li, Yang Qian
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引用次数: 0

摘要

随着全球气候变化的加剧,准确的天气预报对农业、能源管理和环境保护等部门越来越重要。传统方法依赖于物理和统计模型,往往难以应对复杂、非线性和时变数据,因此需要更先进的技术。本研究利用 1996 年至 2017 年的历史气象数据,探索了一种混合 CNN-LSTM 模型,以提高德尔希尔吉恩的气温预报精度。我们采用了直接和间接的方法,包括全面的数据预处理和探索性分析,来构建和训练我们的模型。CNN 组件有效地提取了空间特征,而 LSTM 则捕捉了时间依赖性,从而提高了预测精度。实验结果表明,CNN-LSTM 模型在准确性和稳定性方面都明显优于传统预测方法,其均方误差 (MSE) 为 3.26217,均方根误差 (RMSE) 为 1.80615。该混合模型证明了其作为一种稳健的气温预测工具的潜力,为气象预报及相关领域提供了有价值的见解。未来的研究应侧重于优化模型结构、探索更多特征提取技术以及解决诸如过拟合和计算复杂性等挑战。这种方法不仅有助于气温预测,还为将深度学习应用于其他时间序列预测任务奠定了基础。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Weather Prediction Using CNN-LSTM for Time Series Analysis: A Case Study on Delhi Temperature Data
As global climate change intensifies, accurate weather forecasting is increasingly crucial for sectors such as agriculture, energy management, and environmental protection. Traditional methods, which rely on physical and statistical models, often struggle with complex, nonlinear, and time-varying data, underscoring the need for more advanced techniques. This study explores a hybrid CNN-LSTM model to enhance temperature forecasting accuracy for the Delhi region, using historical meteorological data from 1996 to 2017. We employed both direct and indirect methods, including comprehensive data preprocessing and exploratory analysis, to construct and train our model. The CNN component effectively extracts spatial features, while the LSTM captures temporal dependencies, leading to improved prediction accuracy. Experimental results indicate that the CNN-LSTM model significantly outperforms traditional forecasting methods in terms of both accuracy and stability, with a mean square error (MSE) of 3.26217 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.80615. The hybrid model demonstrates its potential as a robust tool for temperature prediction, offering valuable insights for meteorological forecasting and related fields. Future research should focus on optimizing model architecture, exploring additional feature extraction techniques, and addressing challenges such as overfitting and computational complexity. This approach not only advances temperature forecasting but also provides a foundation for applying deep learning to other time series forecasting tasks.
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