Recent distribution and population trends for Secretarybirds Sagittarius serpentarius in South Africa, Lesotho, and Eswatini from citizen science data

Summary The Secretarybird Sagittarius serpentarius is a charismatic raptor of the grasslands and open savannas of Africa. Evidence of widespread declines across the continent has led to the assessment that the species is at risk of becoming extinct. Southern Africa was identified as a remaining stronghold for the species, but the status of this population requires reassessment. To determine the status of the species in South Africa, Lesotho, and Eswatini, we analysed data from a citizen science project, the Southern African Bird Atlas Project (SABAP). We implemented novel time-to-detection modelling, as well as summarisation of changes in reporting rates, using standard metrics, to determine the trajectory of the population. To cross-validate our findings, we used data from another citizen science project, the Coordinated Avifaunal Roadcounts (CAR) project. While our results were in agreement with previous studies that have reported significant declines when comparing SABAP1 (1987–1992) and SABAP2 (2007 and onwards), all analysis pathways that examined data within the SABAP2 period only, as well as CAR data from this period, failed to show an alarming declining trend over this more recent time period. We did, however, find some evidence for decreases in Secretarybird abundance in urban grid cells. We used random forest models to predict probability of occurrence, as well as probability of abundance (reporting rates) for the assessed region and provided population estimates based on these analysis pathways. Continued monitoring and conservation efforts are required to guard this population stronghold.