{"title":"印度大陆架海域 100 年重现期波浪高度估算的变异性","authors":"Subal Vinayan, V. Sanil Kumar, R. Sajeev","doi":"10.1007/s10872-024-00733-9","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Exploring the variability in design wave heights through extreme value analysis is crucial for understanding extreme oceanographic conditions and is paramount for the safe design and operation of offshore structures. This research delves into a comprehensive analysis of wave height variability in the Indian shelf seas, focusing on wave heights for a 100-year return period at 30 locations using 42 years of reanalysis data. The study employs the Generalized Extreme Value distribution and the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD), utilizing the annual maxima approach with three methods: maximum likelihood, probability-weighted moments, and moments of probability scale. The GPD Peaks Over Threshold (POT) approach is explored with thresholds estimated using various (91 to 99) percentiles, alongside a graphical approach utilizing threshold determination through mean residual life (MRL) plots. Results indicate that the GPD POT approach, particularly when employing thresholds derived from MRL plots, outperforms other methods. Thresholds obtained by MRL method closely align with the thresholds obtained through the 99 percentile for all locations in the Arabian Sea. This investigation not only enhances our understanding of the dynamic wave processes in the Indian shelf seas but also underscores the efficacy of specific statistical distributions and approaches in the evaluation of design wave heights.</p>","PeriodicalId":16640,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Oceanography","volume":"65 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Variabilities in the estimate of 100-year return period wave height in the Indian shelf seas\",\"authors\":\"Subal Vinayan, V. Sanil Kumar, R. Sajeev\",\"doi\":\"10.1007/s10872-024-00733-9\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>Exploring the variability in design wave heights through extreme value analysis is crucial for understanding extreme oceanographic conditions and is paramount for the safe design and operation of offshore structures. This research delves into a comprehensive analysis of wave height variability in the Indian shelf seas, focusing on wave heights for a 100-year return period at 30 locations using 42 years of reanalysis data. The study employs the Generalized Extreme Value distribution and the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD), utilizing the annual maxima approach with three methods: maximum likelihood, probability-weighted moments, and moments of probability scale. The GPD Peaks Over Threshold (POT) approach is explored with thresholds estimated using various (91 to 99) percentiles, alongside a graphical approach utilizing threshold determination through mean residual life (MRL) plots. Results indicate that the GPD POT approach, particularly when employing thresholds derived from MRL plots, outperforms other methods. Thresholds obtained by MRL method closely align with the thresholds obtained through the 99 percentile for all locations in the Arabian Sea. This investigation not only enhances our understanding of the dynamic wave processes in the Indian shelf seas but also underscores the efficacy of specific statistical distributions and approaches in the evaluation of design wave heights.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":16640,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Oceanography\",\"volume\":\"65 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.3000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-09-14\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Oceanography\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10872-024-00733-9\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q4\",\"JCRName\":\"OCEANOGRAPHY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Oceanography","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10872-024-00733-9","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"OCEANOGRAPHY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Variabilities in the estimate of 100-year return period wave height in the Indian shelf seas
Exploring the variability in design wave heights through extreme value analysis is crucial for understanding extreme oceanographic conditions and is paramount for the safe design and operation of offshore structures. This research delves into a comprehensive analysis of wave height variability in the Indian shelf seas, focusing on wave heights for a 100-year return period at 30 locations using 42 years of reanalysis data. The study employs the Generalized Extreme Value distribution and the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD), utilizing the annual maxima approach with three methods: maximum likelihood, probability-weighted moments, and moments of probability scale. The GPD Peaks Over Threshold (POT) approach is explored with thresholds estimated using various (91 to 99) percentiles, alongside a graphical approach utilizing threshold determination through mean residual life (MRL) plots. Results indicate that the GPD POT approach, particularly when employing thresholds derived from MRL plots, outperforms other methods. Thresholds obtained by MRL method closely align with the thresholds obtained through the 99 percentile for all locations in the Arabian Sea. This investigation not only enhances our understanding of the dynamic wave processes in the Indian shelf seas but also underscores the efficacy of specific statistical distributions and approaches in the evaluation of design wave heights.
期刊介绍:
The Journal of Oceanography is the official journal of the Oceanographic Society of Japan and open to all oceanographers in the world. The main aim of the journal is to promote understandings of ocean systems from various aspects including physical, chemical, biological, geological oceanography as well as paleoceanography, etc. The journal welcomes research focusing on the western North Pacific and Asian coastal waters, but the study region is not limited to the Asian Pacific. The journal publishes original articles, short contributions, reviews, and correspondence in oceanography and related fields.