家庭规模对麻疹传播的影响:长期视角

IF 3 3区 医学 Q2 INFECTIOUS DISEASES
Subekshya Bidari , Wan Yang
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引用次数: 0

摘要

由于住户之间的密切接触,住户在传染病的传播中发挥着重要作用。以往关于家庭层面混合的疾病传播模型研究探讨了家庭规模分布与最终流行病规模和基本繁殖数量等流行病特征之间的关系,但没有考虑人口结构变化导致家庭规模下降对流行病的影响。在此,我们使用一个包含家庭规模人口变化的疾病传播模型来研究麻疹在不同家庭规模分布社区的长期传播动态。我们探讨了家庭和年龄结构混合对传播模型动态特性的影响,并比较了不同家庭规模分布的动态特性。我们基于家庭和年龄结构模型的分析表明,家庭规模较大的社区需要更高的疫苗接种门槛,并承受更大的感染负担。然而,模拟结果表明,家庭规模变化的明显影响是出生率和家庭混合变化的综合结果,而且出生率的变化可能比家庭混合变化在影响麻疹传播动态方面发挥更大的作用(注:终身免疫使出生人口易感性的补充成为麻疹传播的关键驱动因素)。此外,利用世界人口总数数据模拟麻疹在假定人口中的地方性传播,结果表明,除了疫苗接种覆盖率的提高外,家庭规模的缩小(由人口生育率的变化驱动)也会对麻疹的发病率产生重大影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The impact of household size on measles transmission: A long-term perspective

Households play an important role in the transmission of infectious diseases due to the close contact therein. Previous modeling studies on disease transmission with household-level mixing have explored the relationship between household size distribution and epidemic characteristics such as final epidemic sizes and the basic reproduction number but have not considered the epidemic impact of declining household sizes caused by demographic shifts. Here, we use a disease transmission model that incorporates demographic changes in household sizes to study the long-term transmission dynamics of measles in communities with varying household size distributions. We explore the impact of incorporating both household- and age-structured mixing on the dynamic properties of the transmission model and compare these dynamics across different household size distributions. Our analysis, based on the household- and age-structured model, shows that communities with larger household sizes require higher vaccination thresholds and bear a greater burden of infections. However, simulations show the apparent impact of changing household sizes is the combined result of changing birth rates and household mixing, and that changing birth rates likely play a larger role than changes in household mixing in shaping measles transmission dynamics (n.b, life-long immunity makes replenishment of population susceptibility from births a crucial transmission driver for measles). In addition, simulations of endemic transmission of measles within a hypothetical population formulated using aggregated world demographic data suggest the decline in household size (driven by changing fertility rates of the population), in addition to increasing vaccination coverage, could have had a significant impact on the incidence of measles over time.

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来源期刊
Epidemics
Epidemics INFECTIOUS DISEASES-
CiteScore
6.00
自引率
7.90%
发文量
92
审稿时长
140 days
期刊介绍: Epidemics publishes papers on infectious disease dynamics in the broadest sense. Its scope covers both within-host dynamics of infectious agents and dynamics at the population level, particularly the interaction between the two. Areas of emphasis include: spread, transmission, persistence, implications and population dynamics of infectious diseases; population and public health as well as policy aspects of control and prevention; dynamics at the individual level; interaction with the environment, ecology and evolution of infectious diseases, as well as population genetics of infectious agents.
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