评估病原体衰变对定量微生物风险评估感染估计值的影响

IF 4.8 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Katherine C. Crank, Lucas Rocha-Melogno, Emily Clements and Kyle Bibby*, 
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引用次数: 0

摘要

定量微生物风险评估(QMRA)很少包括病原体和粪便标记物的衰变。然而,这就需要假设病原体和指标的衰变速度相似,或者人类接触前的衰变可以忽略不计,这可能会误估感染风险。在此,我们创建了一个包含病原体(隐孢子虫、贾第鞭毛虫、肠道病毒、轮状病毒、沙门氏菌属、空肠弯曲杆菌和大肠杆菌 O157:H7)和粪便指标(HF183)衰变的 QMRA 模型,以评估衰变对娱乐用水 QMRA 模型中胃肠道疾病估计概率的影响。忽略病原体的快速衰变会导致风险被高估;例如,不考虑衰变会导致空肠弯曲菌在 30 分钟后的风险和所有病原体在 13 小时后的风险在统计学上被显著高估。用粪便指示剂 HF183 的衰变率代替病原体的衰变率也会迅速导致统计学意义上的高估或低估风险。总之,在污染事件发生后的实际时间尺度上,纳入衰变率会导致统计学上不同的风险估计结果,这表明忽略衰变的 QMRA 会高估患病概率,而指标比率法可能会根据指标和病原体衰变率常数之间的差异导致高估或低估。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Assessing the Impact of Pathogen Decay on Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Infection Estimates

Assessing the Impact of Pathogen Decay on Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Infection Estimates

Quantitative microbial risk assessments (QMRAs) infrequently include pathogen and fecal marker decay. However, this necessitates the assumption that pathogens and indicators decay at similar rates or that decay prior to human exposure is negligible, which may misestimate the infection risks. Here, we created a QMRA model incorporating pathogen (Cryptosporidium, Giardia, Enterovirus, Rotavirus, Salmonella spp., Campylobacter jejuni, and E. coli O157:H7) and fecal indicator (HF183) decay to assess the impact of decay on the probability of gastrointestinal illness estimates in a recreational water QMRA model. Neglecting to account for pathogen decay rapidly resulted in an overestimation of risk; for example, not incorporating decay resulted in a statistically significant overestimation of risk after 30 min for Campylobacter jejuni and after 13 h for all pathogens. Substituting the fecal indicator HF183 decay rates for pathogen decay rates also rapidly resulted in a statistically significant over- or underestimation of risk. HF183 best represented the decay rate of Salmonella spp. but still resulted in an underestimation of risk after 13 h. Overall, including decay rates resulted in statistically different risk estimations on realistic time scales following pollution events, suggesting that QMRAs that neglect decay overestimate the probability of illness, and the indicator ratio approach could yield overestimations or underestimations depending on the difference between indicator and pathogen decay rate constants.

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