Comprehensive Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on River Water Availability for Irrigation, Wheat Crop Area Coverage, and Irrigation Canal Hydraulic Capacity of Large-Scale Irrigation Scheme in Nepal

While atmospheric warming intensifies the global water cycle, regionalised effects of climate change on water loss, irrigation supply, and food security are highly variable. Here, we elucidate the impacts of the climate crisis on irrigation water availability and cropping area in Nepal’s largest irrigation scheme, the Sunsari Morang Irrigation Scheme (SMIS), by accounting for the hydraulic capacity of existing canal systems, and potential changes realised under future climates. To capture variability implicit in climate change projections, we invoke multiple Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs; 4.5 and 8.5) across three time horizons (2016–2045, 2036–2065, and 2071–2100). We reveal that although climate change increases water availability to agriculture from December through March, the designed discharge of 60 m3/s would not be available in February-March for both RCPs under all three time horizons. Weed growth, silt deposition, and poor maintenance have reduced the current canal capacity from the design capacity of 60 m3/s to 53 m3/s up to 10.7 km from the canal intake (representing a 12% reduction in the discharge capacity of the canal). Canal flow is further reduced to 35 m3/s at 13.8 km from canal intake, representing a 27% reduction in flow capacity relative to the original design standards. Based on climate projections, and assuming ceteris paribus irrigation infrastructure, total wheat cropping area could increase by 12–19%, 23–27%, and 12–35% by 2016–2045, 2036–2065, and 2071–2100, respectively, due to increased water availability borne by the changing climate. The case for further investment in irrigation infrastructure via water diversion, or installation of efficient pumps at irrigation canal intakes is compelling. Such investment would catalyse a step-change in the agricultural economy that is urgently needed to sustain the Nepalese economy, and thus evoke beneficial cascading implications for global food security.