{"title":"使用机器学习方法研究年龄对接受手术的早期肝内胆管癌患者死亡原因的影响","authors":"Shiqin Song, Shixiong Song, Huarong Zhao, Shike Huang, Xinghua Xiao, Xiaobo Lv, Yuehong Deng, Yiyin Tao, Yanlin Liu, Ke Su, Shansha Cheng","doi":"10.1007/s12094-024-03716-w","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<h3 data-test=\"abstract-sub-heading\">Background</h3><p>The impact of age on the causes of death (CODs) in patients with early-stage intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) who had undergone surgery was analyzed in this study.</p><h3 data-test=\"abstract-sub-heading\">Methods</h3><p>A total of 1555 patients (885 in the older group and 670 in the younger group) were included in this study. Before and after applying inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW), the different CODs in the 2 groups were further investigated. Additionally, 7 different machine learning models were used as predictive tools to identify key variables, aiming to evaluate the therapeutic outcome in early ICC patients undergoing surgery.</p><h3 data-test=\"abstract-sub-heading\">Results</h3><p>Before (5.92 vs. 4.08 years, <i>P</i> < 0.001) and after (6.00 vs. 4.08 years, <i>P</i> < 0.001) IPTW, the younger group consistently showed longer overall survival (OS) compared with the older group. Before IPTW, there were no significant differences in cholangiocarcinoma-related deaths (CRDs, <i>P</i> = 0.7) and secondary malignant neoplasms (SMNs, <i>P</i> = 0.78) between the 2 groups. However, the younger group had a lower cumulative incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD, <i>P</i> = 0.006) and other causes (<i>P</i> < 0.001) compared with the older group. After IPTW, there were no differences between the 2 groups in CRDs (<i>P</i> = 0.2), SMNs (<i>P</i> = 0.7), and CVD (<i>P</i> = 0.1). However, the younger group had a lower cumulative incidence of other CODs compared with the older group (<i>P</i> < 0.001). The random forest (RF) model showed the highest C-index of 0.703. Time-dependent variable importance bar plots showed that age was the most important factor affecting the 2-, 4-, and 6-year survival, followed by stage and size.</p><h3 data-test=\"abstract-sub-heading\">Conclusions</h3><p>Our study confirmed that younger patients have longer OS compared with older patients. Further analysis of the CODs indicated that older patients are more likely to die from CVDs. The RF model demonstrated the best predictive performance and identified age as the most important factor affecting OS in early ICC patients undergoing surgery.</p>","PeriodicalId":10166,"journal":{"name":"Clinical and Translational Oncology","volume":"307 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Using machine learning methods to investigate the impact of age on the causes of death in patients with early intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma who underwent surgery\",\"authors\":\"Shiqin Song, Shixiong Song, Huarong Zhao, Shike Huang, Xinghua Xiao, Xiaobo Lv, Yuehong Deng, Yiyin Tao, Yanlin Liu, Ke Su, Shansha Cheng\",\"doi\":\"10.1007/s12094-024-03716-w\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<h3 data-test=\\\"abstract-sub-heading\\\">Background</h3><p>The impact of age on the causes of death (CODs) in patients with early-stage intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) who had undergone surgery was analyzed in this study.</p><h3 data-test=\\\"abstract-sub-heading\\\">Methods</h3><p>A total of 1555 patients (885 in the older group and 670 in the younger group) were included in this study. Before and after applying inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW), the different CODs in the 2 groups were further investigated. Additionally, 7 different machine learning models were used as predictive tools to identify key variables, aiming to evaluate the therapeutic outcome in early ICC patients undergoing surgery.</p><h3 data-test=\\\"abstract-sub-heading\\\">Results</h3><p>Before (5.92 vs. 4.08 years, <i>P</i> < 0.001) and after (6.00 vs. 4.08 years, <i>P</i> < 0.001) IPTW, the younger group consistently showed longer overall survival (OS) compared with the older group. Before IPTW, there were no significant differences in cholangiocarcinoma-related deaths (CRDs, <i>P</i> = 0.7) and secondary malignant neoplasms (SMNs, <i>P</i> = 0.78) between the 2 groups. However, the younger group had a lower cumulative incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD, <i>P</i> = 0.006) and other causes (<i>P</i> < 0.001) compared with the older group. After IPTW, there were no differences between the 2 groups in CRDs (<i>P</i> = 0.2), SMNs (<i>P</i> = 0.7), and CVD (<i>P</i> = 0.1). However, the younger group had a lower cumulative incidence of other CODs compared with the older group (<i>P</i> < 0.001). The random forest (RF) model showed the highest C-index of 0.703. Time-dependent variable importance bar plots showed that age was the most important factor affecting the 2-, 4-, and 6-year survival, followed by stage and size.</p><h3 data-test=\\\"abstract-sub-heading\\\">Conclusions</h3><p>Our study confirmed that younger patients have longer OS compared with older patients. Further analysis of the CODs indicated that older patients are more likely to die from CVDs. The RF model demonstrated the best predictive performance and identified age as the most important factor affecting OS in early ICC patients undergoing surgery.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":10166,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Clinical and Translational Oncology\",\"volume\":\"307 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-09-11\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Clinical and Translational Oncology\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s12094-024-03716-w\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Clinical and Translational Oncology","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s12094-024-03716-w","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Using machine learning methods to investigate the impact of age on the causes of death in patients with early intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma who underwent surgery
Background
The impact of age on the causes of death (CODs) in patients with early-stage intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) who had undergone surgery was analyzed in this study.
Methods
A total of 1555 patients (885 in the older group and 670 in the younger group) were included in this study. Before and after applying inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW), the different CODs in the 2 groups were further investigated. Additionally, 7 different machine learning models were used as predictive tools to identify key variables, aiming to evaluate the therapeutic outcome in early ICC patients undergoing surgery.
Results
Before (5.92 vs. 4.08 years, P < 0.001) and after (6.00 vs. 4.08 years, P < 0.001) IPTW, the younger group consistently showed longer overall survival (OS) compared with the older group. Before IPTW, there were no significant differences in cholangiocarcinoma-related deaths (CRDs, P = 0.7) and secondary malignant neoplasms (SMNs, P = 0.78) between the 2 groups. However, the younger group had a lower cumulative incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD, P = 0.006) and other causes (P < 0.001) compared with the older group. After IPTW, there were no differences between the 2 groups in CRDs (P = 0.2), SMNs (P = 0.7), and CVD (P = 0.1). However, the younger group had a lower cumulative incidence of other CODs compared with the older group (P < 0.001). The random forest (RF) model showed the highest C-index of 0.703. Time-dependent variable importance bar plots showed that age was the most important factor affecting the 2-, 4-, and 6-year survival, followed by stage and size.
Conclusions
Our study confirmed that younger patients have longer OS compared with older patients. Further analysis of the CODs indicated that older patients are more likely to die from CVDs. The RF model demonstrated the best predictive performance and identified age as the most important factor affecting OS in early ICC patients undergoing surgery.
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