Chaitanya Baliram Pande, Lariyah Mohd Sidek, Abhay M. Varade, Ismail Elkhrachy, Neyara Radwan, Abebe Debele Tolche, Ahmed Elbeltagi
{"title":"利用集合模型和机器学习模型预报气象干旱","authors":"Chaitanya Baliram Pande, Lariyah Mohd Sidek, Abhay M. Varade, Ismail Elkhrachy, Neyara Radwan, Abebe Debele Tolche, Ahmed Elbeltagi","doi":"10.1186/s12302-024-00975-w","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study highlights drought forecasting for understanding the semi-arid area in India, where drought phenomena play vital role in the irrigation, drinking water supplies, and sustaining the ecological with economic balance for every nation. Therefore, drought forecasting is important for the future drought planning based on the machine learning (ML) models. Hence, The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at 3- and 6-month periods have been selected and used for future drought forecasting scenarios in area. The combinations of ten inputs SPI-1- and SPI-10 were used for predicting modeling for SPI-3 and SPI-6 timescales, that modeling developed based on the historical SPI datasets from 1989 to 2019 years. The SPI-3 and SPI-6 maximum and minimum values are shown SPI-3 (2.03 and -5.522) and SPI-6 (1.94 and -6.93). The SPI is a popular method for estimating the drought analysis and has been used everywhere at global level. The developed models have been compared with each other, with the best combination of input variables selected using subset regression models and sensitivity studies. After that, the active input parameters were used for forecasting of SPI-3 and SPI-6 values to understanding of drought in semi-arid area. The finest input variables combination have been used in the Ml models and established the novel five models such as robust linear regression, bagged trees, boosted trees, support vector regression (SVM-Linear), and Matern Gaussian Process Regression (Matern GPR) models. Such kind of models first time has been applied for the forecasting of future drought conditions. Whole models were fine and improved modeling by using hyperparameters tuning, bagging, and boosting models. Entire ML models’ accuracy was compared using different statistical metrics. Compared with five ML models accuracy, we have found that the Matern GPR model better accuracy than other ML models. The best model accuracy is R<sup>2</sup> = 0.95 and 0.93, RMSE, MSE, MAE, MARE, and NSE values, respectively, for predicting SPI-3 and SPI-6 values in the area. Therefore, the Matern GPR model was identified as the finest ML algorithm for predicting SPI-3 and SPI-6 associated with other algorithms. This research demonstrates the Matern GPR model's efficacy in predicting multiscale SPI-3 and SPI-6 under climate variations. It can be helpful in soil and water resource conservation planning and management and understanding droughts in the entire basin areas of the country India.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":546,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Sciences Europe","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1186/s12302-024-00975-w.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Forecasting of meteorological drought using ensemble and machine learning models\",\"authors\":\"Chaitanya Baliram Pande, Lariyah Mohd Sidek, Abhay M. 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The SPI is a popular method for estimating the drought analysis and has been used everywhere at global level. The developed models have been compared with each other, with the best combination of input variables selected using subset regression models and sensitivity studies. After that, the active input parameters were used for forecasting of SPI-3 and SPI-6 values to understanding of drought in semi-arid area. The finest input variables combination have been used in the Ml models and established the novel five models such as robust linear regression, bagged trees, boosted trees, support vector regression (SVM-Linear), and Matern Gaussian Process Regression (Matern GPR) models. Such kind of models first time has been applied for the forecasting of future drought conditions. Whole models were fine and improved modeling by using hyperparameters tuning, bagging, and boosting models. Entire ML models’ accuracy was compared using different statistical metrics. Compared with five ML models accuracy, we have found that the Matern GPR model better accuracy than other ML models. The best model accuracy is R<sup>2</sup> = 0.95 and 0.93, RMSE, MSE, MAE, MARE, and NSE values, respectively, for predicting SPI-3 and SPI-6 values in the area. Therefore, the Matern GPR model was identified as the finest ML algorithm for predicting SPI-3 and SPI-6 associated with other algorithms. This research demonstrates the Matern GPR model's efficacy in predicting multiscale SPI-3 and SPI-6 under climate variations. 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Forecasting of meteorological drought using ensemble and machine learning models
This study highlights drought forecasting for understanding the semi-arid area in India, where drought phenomena play vital role in the irrigation, drinking water supplies, and sustaining the ecological with economic balance for every nation. Therefore, drought forecasting is important for the future drought planning based on the machine learning (ML) models. Hence, The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at 3- and 6-month periods have been selected and used for future drought forecasting scenarios in area. The combinations of ten inputs SPI-1- and SPI-10 were used for predicting modeling for SPI-3 and SPI-6 timescales, that modeling developed based on the historical SPI datasets from 1989 to 2019 years. The SPI-3 and SPI-6 maximum and minimum values are shown SPI-3 (2.03 and -5.522) and SPI-6 (1.94 and -6.93). The SPI is a popular method for estimating the drought analysis and has been used everywhere at global level. The developed models have been compared with each other, with the best combination of input variables selected using subset regression models and sensitivity studies. After that, the active input parameters were used for forecasting of SPI-3 and SPI-6 values to understanding of drought in semi-arid area. The finest input variables combination have been used in the Ml models and established the novel five models such as robust linear regression, bagged trees, boosted trees, support vector regression (SVM-Linear), and Matern Gaussian Process Regression (Matern GPR) models. Such kind of models first time has been applied for the forecasting of future drought conditions. Whole models were fine and improved modeling by using hyperparameters tuning, bagging, and boosting models. Entire ML models’ accuracy was compared using different statistical metrics. Compared with five ML models accuracy, we have found that the Matern GPR model better accuracy than other ML models. The best model accuracy is R2 = 0.95 and 0.93, RMSE, MSE, MAE, MARE, and NSE values, respectively, for predicting SPI-3 and SPI-6 values in the area. Therefore, the Matern GPR model was identified as the finest ML algorithm for predicting SPI-3 and SPI-6 associated with other algorithms. This research demonstrates the Matern GPR model's efficacy in predicting multiscale SPI-3 and SPI-6 under climate variations. It can be helpful in soil and water resource conservation planning and management and understanding droughts in the entire basin areas of the country India.
期刊介绍:
ESEU is an international journal, focusing primarily on Europe, with a broad scope covering all aspects of environmental sciences, including the main topic regulation.
ESEU will discuss the entanglement between environmental sciences and regulation because, in recent years, there have been misunderstandings and even disagreement between stakeholders in these two areas. ESEU will help to improve the comprehension of issues between environmental sciences and regulation.
ESEU will be an outlet from the German-speaking (DACH) countries to Europe and an inlet from Europe to the DACH countries regarding environmental sciences and regulation.
Moreover, ESEU will facilitate the exchange of ideas and interaction between Europe and the DACH countries regarding environmental regulatory issues.
Although Europe is at the center of ESEU, the journal will not exclude the rest of the world, because regulatory issues pertaining to environmental sciences can be fully seen only from a global perspective.