Modeling of Throbbing Invasive and Epidemic Processes Based on Biophysical Adaptation Hybrid Structures

Abstract

We have developed a computational modeling method for analyzing staging biophysical processes with sharp transitions between dynamic regimes and analyze the observed important forms of aggressive invasive processes in models. These models take into account the existence of variants in the evolution of a crisis situation depending on physical and biotic factors. Hazardous invasions of foreign forms of life occur during a biophysical interaction with isolated systems. We model fast changing of stages and alteration of outbreaks and depressions of population waves. Hazardous rapid events investigated in this study appear upon the invasion of a new agent into the existing medium. Invasive processes also depend on the rate of active resistance exerted by the biota as well as on the physical medium factors and the climate. In special conditions, the effect of population outbreak of the spreading undesirable species. Apart from the climatic factor, the response of biotic environment is important. Aggressive invasions often occur as oscillating processes, but waves are transformed upon the adaptation of a foreign organism and the biotic medium. The series of activity peaks decay as a result of adaptation of the autochthonous biota to the invader. We have developed a method for constructing computational scenario models based on a logically extendable hybrid structure of equations. For modeling the evolution of the situation, we propose that the right-hand sides of equations be reconstructed in accordance with the evolution stages of antagonistic biophysical systems. The method for constructing hybrid structures takes into account the stages and delayed adaptation, which is manifested during the evolution and depression of an invasive outbreak. The developed hybrid models have made it possible to consider three actually observed variants of evolution and termination of the extremal phenonon of population outbreak of aggressive species. Invasive scenarios are classified and analyzed in the model from the dynamics of their evolution stages using as an example the situation of invasions in the Caspian Sea and in biocenoses of forest in North America, which often experience rapid defoliation. Small insects, which have many enemies in some special conditions, turn out to be capable of unbelievably fast reproduction; however, a certain time is required for restoring resources. The model scenarios describe series of peaks with decaying activity after the primary outbreak with a transition to a chaotic regime, when the situation of complete disappearance of a hazardous foreign organism from the medium is probable. In the model, two types of bifurcation of attractors are used, which makes it possible to estimate the factors responsible for repeated activity of an invasive population after the depression stage. Climatic factors alone can be insufficient for initiating an aggressive outbreak. Not only new vermin, but also antagonists of main enemies of conventional vermin turn out to be hazardous invaders. An important factor is the invasion of a superparasite. Invaders destroy the stability of regulating mechanisms that sustain the balance and fragile equilibrium. In an organism, the algorithms of action of immune reaction complex sustained by the community of more than 90 types of immune cells are responsible for the resistance to invasion. A retarded response is possible; for example, an acute infection has been transformed into chronic Long COVID. So different epidemic situations with COVID and invasive phenomena cannot be described by a unified model. We propose a different approach based on analysis of similarity of scenarios and analogies. A distinguishing feature of the modeling method is that the properties of phenomena are classified according to the types of their nonlinearity. Only after the establishing the properties of apparent oscillations, it is possible to work out an redetermined structure of equations precisely for modeling the observed type of a biophysical process.