Robinson Negron-Juarez, Michael Wehner, Maria Assunção F Silva Dias, Paul Ullrich, Jeffrey Q Chambers, William J Riley
{"title":"耦合模式相互比较项目第 6 阶段(CMIP6) 高分辨率模式相互比较项目(HighResMIP) 极端降雨量的偏差导致低估了亚马孙降水量","authors":"Robinson Negron-Juarez, Michael Wehner, Maria Assunção F Silva Dias, Paul Ullrich, Jeffrey Q Chambers, William J Riley","doi":"10.1088/2515-7620/ad6ff9","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Extreme rainfall events drive the amount and spatial distribution of rainfall in the Amazon and are a key driver of forest dynamics across the basin. This study investigates how the 3-hourly predictions in the High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP, a component of the recent Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, CMIP6) represent extreme rainfall events at annual, seasonal, and sub-daily time scales. TRMM 3B42 (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) 3 h data were used as observations. Our results showed that eleven out of seventeen HighResMIP models showed the observed association between rainfall and number of extreme events at the annual and seasonal scales. Two models captured the spatial pattern of number of extreme events at the seasonal and annual scales better (higher correlation) than the other models. None of the models captured the sub-daily timing of extreme rainfall, though some reproduced daily totals. Our results suggest that higher model resolution is a crucial factor for capturing extreme rainfall events in the Amazon, but it might not be the sole factor. Improving the representation of Amazon extreme rainfall events in HighResMIP models can help reduce model rainfall biases and uncertainties and enable more reliable assessments of the water cycle and forest dynamics in the Amazon.","PeriodicalId":48496,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Communications","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6) high resolution model intercomparison project (HighResMIP) bias in extreme rainfall drives underestimation of amazonian precipitation\",\"authors\":\"Robinson Negron-Juarez, Michael Wehner, Maria Assunção F Silva Dias, Paul Ullrich, Jeffrey Q Chambers, William J Riley\",\"doi\":\"10.1088/2515-7620/ad6ff9\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Extreme rainfall events drive the amount and spatial distribution of rainfall in the Amazon and are a key driver of forest dynamics across the basin. This study investigates how the 3-hourly predictions in the High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP, a component of the recent Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, CMIP6) represent extreme rainfall events at annual, seasonal, and sub-daily time scales. TRMM 3B42 (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) 3 h data were used as observations. Our results showed that eleven out of seventeen HighResMIP models showed the observed association between rainfall and number of extreme events at the annual and seasonal scales. Two models captured the spatial pattern of number of extreme events at the seasonal and annual scales better (higher correlation) than the other models. None of the models captured the sub-daily timing of extreme rainfall, though some reproduced daily totals. Our results suggest that higher model resolution is a crucial factor for capturing extreme rainfall events in the Amazon, but it might not be the sole factor. Improving the representation of Amazon extreme rainfall events in HighResMIP models can help reduce model rainfall biases and uncertainties and enable more reliable assessments of the water cycle and forest dynamics in the Amazon.\",\"PeriodicalId\":48496,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Environmental Research Communications\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.5000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-09-02\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Environmental Research Communications\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"93\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ad6ff9\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"环境科学与生态学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Environmental Research Communications","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ad6ff9","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6) high resolution model intercomparison project (HighResMIP) bias in extreme rainfall drives underestimation of amazonian precipitation
Extreme rainfall events drive the amount and spatial distribution of rainfall in the Amazon and are a key driver of forest dynamics across the basin. This study investigates how the 3-hourly predictions in the High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP, a component of the recent Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, CMIP6) represent extreme rainfall events at annual, seasonal, and sub-daily time scales. TRMM 3B42 (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) 3 h data were used as observations. Our results showed that eleven out of seventeen HighResMIP models showed the observed association between rainfall and number of extreme events at the annual and seasonal scales. Two models captured the spatial pattern of number of extreme events at the seasonal and annual scales better (higher correlation) than the other models. None of the models captured the sub-daily timing of extreme rainfall, though some reproduced daily totals. Our results suggest that higher model resolution is a crucial factor for capturing extreme rainfall events in the Amazon, but it might not be the sole factor. Improving the representation of Amazon extreme rainfall events in HighResMIP models can help reduce model rainfall biases and uncertainties and enable more reliable assessments of the water cycle and forest dynamics in the Amazon.