1972年至2019年日本环境温度与交通事故死亡率之间关系的时间变化和空间异质性:一项全国范围的时间分层病例交叉研究

IF 2.5 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Rui Pan, Yeonseung Chung, Kisung Sim, Masahiro Hashizume, Yasushi Honda, Whanhee Lee, Yoonhee Kim
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引用次数: 0

摘要

研究表明,环境温度与交通事故有关;然而,人们对这种关联的时间变化和空间异质性知之甚少。本研究利用 1972 年至 2019 年的每日时间序列数据,调查了日本气温与交通事故死亡率之间关联的时间变化和空间差异。首先,我们使用分布式滞后非线性模型进行了时间分层病例交叉分析,估计了日本 47 个都道府县的交通事故死亡率与气温的风险关系。然后,我们通过多变量荟萃分析,将估算结果汇集起来,得出国家层面的风险。此外,我们还将整个时间段划分为五个子时间段,以探讨关联的时间变化,并拟合混合效应元回归,以确定可能解释空间异质性的气候、人口和社会经济因素。我们发现,气温与交通事故死亡率呈正相关,日平均气温每升高 1 °C,交通事故死亡率的百分比变化 (PC) 将增加 1.47%(95% 置信区间 [CI]:1.10%, 1.85%)。从 1972 年 [PC = 2.14% (95% CI: 1.51%, 2.77%)]到 2000 年 [PC = 0.89% (95% CI: 0.21%, 1.57%)],与气温相关的交通事故死亡风险有所下降,但从 2001 年 [PC = 1.13% (95% CI: 0.47%, 1.48%)]到 2019 年 [PC = 1.60% (95% CI: 0.73%, 2.48%)],与气温相关的交通事故死亡风险略有上升。温度与交通事故死亡率之间的关联在相对欠发达的都道府县更大,人口和社会经济因素(如总人口、老年人和女性所占比例以及综合医院数量)可以解释这一点。我们的研究结果可能有助于更好地理解高温与交通事故死亡率之间的关系及其潜在机制,从而为今后降低交通事故死亡率的公共卫生政策提供参考。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Temporal change and spatial heterogeneity of the association between ambient temperature and transport accident mortality in Japan from 1972 to 2019: a nationwide time-stratified case-crossover study
Studies have demonstrated that ambient temperature was associated with transport accidents; however, little is known about the temporal change and spatial heterogeneity of this association. This study investigated the temporal change and spatial variation in the association between temperature and transport accident mortality in Japan using daily time-series data from 1972 to 2019. First, we used time-stratified case-crossover analyses with a distributed lag nonlinear model to estimate the risks of transport accident mortality with temperature in 47 prefectures in Japan. We then pooled the estimates to obtain the risk at the country level through multivariate meta-analysis. In addition, we divided the whole time period into five sub-periods to explore temporal changes in the association and fitted the mixed-effects meta-regression to identify climatic, demographic, and socioeconomic factors that may explain the spatial heterogeneity. We found that temperature was positively associated with transport accident mortality, with a percent change (PC) of 1.47% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.10%, 1.85%) increase in transport accident mortality per 1 °C increase in daily mean temperature. The risk of transport accident mortality associated with temperature has decreased from 1972 [PC = 2.14% (95% CI: 1.51%, 2.77%)] to 2000 [PC = 0.89% (95% CI: 0.21%, 1.57%)] but increased slightly from 2001 [PC = 1.13% (95% CI: 0.47%, 1.48%)] to 2019 [PC = 1.60% (95% CI: 0.73%, 2.48%)]. The association between temperature and transport accident mortality was larger in relatively less developed prefectures, as explained by demographic and socioeconomic factors (e.g., total population, proportion of older people and females, and number of general hospitals). Our findings may help to better understand the association between high temperature and transport accident mortality and underlying potential mechanisms, which can provide implications for public health policies to reduce the mortality burden from transport accidents in the future.
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来源期刊
Environmental Research Communications
Environmental Research Communications ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES-
CiteScore
3.50
自引率
0.00%
发文量
136
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