Anas platyrhynchos (Mallard) have been replacing Anas rubripes (American Black Duck) in human-altered landscapes in Ontario, 1996–2019

Anas rubripes (American Black Duck) has received much attention over the years as a popular game bird species that experienced historical declines on its wintering grounds. Declines may be due to changes in the quality and quantity of breeding habitat, competition with A. platyrhynchos (Mallard), or both. Although the A. rubripes population has stabilized, spatial variation in regional population trends of A. rubripes on their breeding grounds can provide insight into the relative importance of these alternative hypotheses at provincial and local scales. We analyzed indicated breeding pairs count data collected in Ontario between 1996 and 2019 through the Eastern Waterfowl Survey to evaluate the correlation in breeding densities and trends of the five most abundant waterfowl species. We also tested whether habitat and anthropogenic disturbance variables could explain the distribution of those species. Overall, A. platyrhynchos breeding pair densities increased across the survey area, whereas A. rubripes breeding pair densities decreased in the southern and northern part of the survey area but remained stable in the central part. Densities of breeding pairs of A. rubripes and A. platyrhynchos were negatively correlated across survey plots but the trends in breeding densities were not correlated. Densities of A. platyrhynchos breeding pairs increased in human altered landscapes whereas the density of A. rubripes breeding pairs was negatively correlated with agriculture. Our results suggest that A. platyrhynchos did not competitively exclude A. rubripes on the breeding grounds, but instead, A. rubripes were replaced by A. platyrhynchos following encroachment of agriculture into A. rubripes breeding habitat. Habitat management plans focused on breeding A. rubripes should emphasize reduction in the expansion of anthropogenic perturbations and increases in habitat conservation efforts in the central area of the breeding range in Ontario.