降雨模式的环境动态:巴基斯坦大都市降雨强度-持续时间-频率曲线的比较分析

IF 2.8 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Safeera Zaineb, Muzaffar Bashir
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引用次数: 0

摘要

对极端降雨参数,特别是降雨强度的分析,对水文系统的保护、生产力和抵御暴风雨和洪水的能力起着重要作用。这对于像巴基斯坦这样的干旱和半干旱地区尤为重要,因为在这些地区,短期累积的长期降雨数据非常有限。为了满足这一需求,本研究利用巴基斯坦不同海拔和地理区域四个城市的降雨数据,绘制了强度-持续时间-频率(IDF)曲线。通过对不同持续时间(1 小时、6 小时、12 小时和 24 小时)的观测数据进行 Gumbel 分布统计拟合,研究得出了不同重现期的降雨强度。分析显示,根据 2001 年至 2022 年的数据,拉合尔、卡拉奇、奎达和白沙瓦的年平均降雨量分别为 25.42 毫米、9.62 毫米、9.25 毫米和 28.02 毫米,标准偏差分别为 6.45 毫米、9.67 毫米、7.50 毫米和 11.96 毫米。值得注意的是,与内陆和沿海地区相比,山区不同重现期(2 年、5 年、10 年和 25 年)的评估降雨强度更高。此外,该研究还通过线性回归技术为每个城市的 IDF 公式开发了经验参数,从而可以根据所需的回归期预测降雨强度。最后,为所有参数绘制了等高线图,可用于确定未测站地点的 IDF 关系。这些成果凸显了山区在极端降雨事件面前的脆弱性,强调了更新基础设施和制定强有力的洪水管理战略的必要性。得出的 IDF 曲线和经验参数为政策制定者和城市规划者提供了宝贵的工具,以规划有效的干预措施,减轻极端降雨对巴基斯坦的不利影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Environmental dynamics of rainfall patterns: a comparative analysis of intensity-duration-frequency curves of metropolitan cities in Pakistan

Environmental dynamics of rainfall patterns: a comparative analysis of intensity-duration-frequency curves of metropolitan cities in Pakistan

The analysis of extreme rainfall parameters, particularly rainfall intensities, plays a serious role in the protection, productivity, and resilience of hydrological systems against storms and floods. This is especially important in arid and semi-arid regions like Pakistan, where inclusive long-term rainfall data with short aggregation periods is limited. Addressing this need, the current study develops intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves using rainfall data from four cities across different elevations and geographical regions within Pakistan. By statistically fitting the Gumbel distribution to observed data at different durations (1 h, 6 h, 12 h, and 24 h), the study originates rainfall intensities for distinct return periods. The analysis discloses an average annual rainfall of 25.42 mm, 9.62 mm, 9.25 mm, and 28.02 mm, with standard deviations of 6.45 mm, 9.67 mm, 7.50 mm, and 11.96 mm for Lahore, Karachi, Quetta, and Peshawar, respectively, based on data from 2001 to 2022. Notably, the assessed rainfall intensities for various return periods (2, 5, 10, and 25 years) are higher in mountainous regions compared to interior and coastal regions. Additionally, the study develops empirical parameters for the IDF formula for each city through a linear regression technique, allowing the prediction of rainfall intensities based on desired return periods. Finally, contour maps for all the parameters were created, which can be used to determine IDF relationships for un-gauged locations. These outcomes underscore the vulnerability of mountainous regions to extreme rainfall events, focus the necessity for updated infrastructure and robust flood management strategies. The derived IDF curves and empirical parameters offer valuable tools for policymakers and urban planners to plan effective interventions aimed at mitigating the adverse impacts of extreme rainfall in Pakistan.

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来源期刊
Theoretical and Applied Climatology
Theoretical and Applied Climatology 地学-气象与大气科学
CiteScore
6.00
自引率
11.80%
发文量
376
审稿时长
4.3 months
期刊介绍: Theoretical and Applied Climatology covers the following topics: - climate modeling, climatic changes and climate forecasting, micro- to mesoclimate, applied meteorology as in agro- and forestmeteorology, biometeorology, building meteorology and atmospheric radiation problems as they relate to the biosphere - effects of anthropogenic and natural aerosols or gaseous trace constituents - hardware and software elements of meteorological measurements, including techniques of remote sensing
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