{"title":"CMIP6 气候模型中长期厄尔尼诺/南方涛动事件的机理挑战:分析","authors":"Anika Arora","doi":"10.1007/s00704-024-05182-4","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>The study delves into the complexities of prolonged El Niño (PE) and La Niña (PL) events, examining their behaviour, dynamics, and representation in climate models participating in CMIP6. These events deviate from the typical cycles of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system and significantly impact global weather patterns and socioeconomic systems. The study aims to enhance our understanding of these multi-year ENSO events through a comparative analysis of observational data and model simulations. Observational data reveal the distinct characteristics of PE and PL events, with prolonged warming or cooling anomalies persisting in the equatorial Pacific beyond the usual timeframe associated with canonical El Niño (CE) and La Niña (CL) events. However, while climate models generally capture the general trend of sustained warming or cooling, discrepancies exist in the magnitude and timing of SST anomalies, particularly during peak phases. The analysis highlights limitations in the ability of current climate models to simulate consecutive El Niño events following PE events and strong El Niño events preceding PL events accurately. Furthermore, discrepancies in the representation of subsurface oceanic dynamics and zonal wind stress patterns underscore challenges in capturing the intricate interactions driving ENSO variability. The study emphasizes the importance of refining climate models to capture better the intricacies of prolonged ENSO events, which have significant implications for future climate projections and adaptation strategies.</p>","PeriodicalId":22945,"journal":{"name":"Theoretical and Applied Climatology","volume":"276 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Mechanistic challenges of prolonged ENSO events in CMIP6 climate models: an analysis\",\"authors\":\"Anika Arora\",\"doi\":\"10.1007/s00704-024-05182-4\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>The study delves into the complexities of prolonged El Niño (PE) and La Niña (PL) events, examining their behaviour, dynamics, and representation in climate models participating in CMIP6. These events deviate from the typical cycles of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system and significantly impact global weather patterns and socioeconomic systems. The study aims to enhance our understanding of these multi-year ENSO events through a comparative analysis of observational data and model simulations. Observational data reveal the distinct characteristics of PE and PL events, with prolonged warming or cooling anomalies persisting in the equatorial Pacific beyond the usual timeframe associated with canonical El Niño (CE) and La Niña (CL) events. However, while climate models generally capture the general trend of sustained warming or cooling, discrepancies exist in the magnitude and timing of SST anomalies, particularly during peak phases. The analysis highlights limitations in the ability of current climate models to simulate consecutive El Niño events following PE events and strong El Niño events preceding PL events accurately. Furthermore, discrepancies in the representation of subsurface oceanic dynamics and zonal wind stress patterns underscore challenges in capturing the intricate interactions driving ENSO variability. The study emphasizes the importance of refining climate models to capture better the intricacies of prolonged ENSO events, which have significant implications for future climate projections and adaptation strategies.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":22945,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Theoretical and Applied Climatology\",\"volume\":\"276 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.8000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-09-07\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Theoretical and Applied Climatology\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-024-05182-4\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Theoretical and Applied Climatology","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-024-05182-4","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
摘要
该研究深入探讨了长期厄尔尼诺(PE)和拉尼娜(PL)事件的复杂性,研究了它们的行为、动态以及在参与 CMIP6 的气候模式中的表现。这些事件偏离了厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)系统的典型周期,对全球天气模式和社会经济系统产生了重大影响。这项研究旨在通过对观测数据和模式模拟的比较分析,加深我们对这些多年厄尔尼诺/南方涛动事件的理解。观测数据揭示了 PE 和 PL 事件的显著特点,即在赤道太平洋持续时间较长的升温或降温异常,超出了典型厄尔尼诺(CE)和拉尼娜(CL)事件的通常时间范围。然而,虽然气候模式一般都能捕捉到持续变暖或变冷的总体趋势,但在海温异常的幅度和时间上却存在差异,尤其是在高峰阶段。分析结果表明,目前的气候模式在准确模拟 PE 事件之后的连续厄尔尼诺事件和 PL 事件之前的强厄尔尼诺事件方面存在局限性。此外,表层下海洋动力学和带状风压模式的表述存在差异,这凸显了在捕捉驱动厄尔尼诺/南方涛动变异的错综复杂的相互作用方面所面临的挑战。该研究强调了完善气候模式以更好地捕捉厄尔尼诺/南方涛动长期事件错综复杂的特点的重要性,这对未来气候预测和适应战略具有重要影响。
Mechanistic challenges of prolonged ENSO events in CMIP6 climate models: an analysis
The study delves into the complexities of prolonged El Niño (PE) and La Niña (PL) events, examining their behaviour, dynamics, and representation in climate models participating in CMIP6. These events deviate from the typical cycles of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system and significantly impact global weather patterns and socioeconomic systems. The study aims to enhance our understanding of these multi-year ENSO events through a comparative analysis of observational data and model simulations. Observational data reveal the distinct characteristics of PE and PL events, with prolonged warming or cooling anomalies persisting in the equatorial Pacific beyond the usual timeframe associated with canonical El Niño (CE) and La Niña (CL) events. However, while climate models generally capture the general trend of sustained warming or cooling, discrepancies exist in the magnitude and timing of SST anomalies, particularly during peak phases. The analysis highlights limitations in the ability of current climate models to simulate consecutive El Niño events following PE events and strong El Niño events preceding PL events accurately. Furthermore, discrepancies in the representation of subsurface oceanic dynamics and zonal wind stress patterns underscore challenges in capturing the intricate interactions driving ENSO variability. The study emphasizes the importance of refining climate models to capture better the intricacies of prolonged ENSO events, which have significant implications for future climate projections and adaptation strategies.
期刊介绍:
Theoretical and Applied Climatology covers the following topics:
- climate modeling, climatic changes and climate forecasting, micro- to mesoclimate, applied meteorology as in agro- and forestmeteorology, biometeorology, building meteorology and atmospheric radiation problems as they relate to the biosphere
- effects of anthropogenic and natural aerosols or gaseous trace constituents
- hardware and software elements of meteorological measurements, including techniques of remote sensing