When perception shapes reality: Effects of perceived income inequality and social mobility on affective polarization

Economic inequality and affective polarization are regarded as crucial factors impacting democratic resilience. However, studies on how the two phenomena are intertwined remain scarce and rely primarily on objective measures of economic inequality, overlooking the important role of subjective perceptions. In this paper, we aim to fill this gap by empirically testing the link between perceptions of income inequality and affective polarization. In addition, we examine whether perceptions of income mobility moderate this relationship in such a way that perceptions of higher income mobility substitute the effect of perceived income inequality on affective polarization. To do so, we conducted a survey experiment (N = 2,717) with a factorial 2 (high vs. low income inequality) × 2 (high vs. low income mobility) design, in which we successfully modified income inequality and mobility perceptions. We find no significant effect of inequality perceptions on affective polarization and, as a consequence, no moderating role of income mobility perceptions in this relationship. Nevertheless, when income inequality is regarded to be high, the perceived level of income mobility seems to matter for the degree of affective polarization: Respondents are significantly more polarized in the high inequality and low mobility treatment than in the high inequality and high mobility treatment.