Linear and fractional response for nonlinear dissipative SPDEs

A framework to establish response theory for a class of nonlinear stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) is provided. More specifically, it is shown that for a certain class of observables, the averages of those observables against the stationary measure of the SPDE are differentiable (linear response) or, under weaker conditions, locally Hölder continuous (fractional response) as functions of a deterministic additive forcing. The method allows to consider observables that are not necessarily differentiable. For such observables, spectral gap results for the Markov semigroup associated with the SPDE have recently been established that are fairly accessible. This is important here as spectral gaps are a major ingredient for establishing linear response. The results are applied to the 2D stochastic Navier–Stokes equation and the stochastic two–layer quasi–geostrophic model, an intermediate complexity model popular in the geosciences to study atmosphere and ocean dynamics. The physical motivation for studying the response to perturbations in the forcings for models in geophysical fluid dynamics comes from climate change and relate to the question as to whether statistical properties of the dynamics derived under current conditions will be valid under different forcing scenarios.