转型升级政策对中国燃煤发电行业市场表现的长期影响

IF 2.5 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Yan Li, Kailu Zhang, Bojiao Mu, Xinran Mo
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在当今可持续发展的经济导向下,传统能源产业的转型升级越来越具有理论和现实意义。许多国家政府试图出台一批转型升级(TFU)政策,希望引导传统企业顺利转型。然而,对转型升级政策的长期效果缺乏系统研究,不利于政策的完善。本文旨在从资本资产定价的角度,研究TFU政策对相关传统能源企业的长期影响。本文以中国最典型、规模最大的传统能源行业--燃煤发电行业为样本,收集了中国政府出台的 318 项 TFU 政策以及该行业内 A 股上市煤炭火电企业的相关数据。采用潜狄利克特分配模型将TFU政策分为六种类型,然后建立詹森α模型检验每种类型的TFU政策在不同滞后期的长期效应。结果显示,在所有类型的技术性公平竞争政策下,煤炭和火电股票投资组合的詹森阿尔法值在每个滞后期均显著为负,这意味着长期效应为负。进一步的统计分析显示,在大多数类型的技术性调整政策下,中央国有企业的詹森阿尔法值随机地大于地方国有企业的詹森阿尔法值,表明中央国有企业受到的负面影响一般较小。此外,还讨论了煤炭和火电投资组合之间以及中央国有企业和地方国有企业之间詹森阿尔法值的不同特征。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

The long-term effects of transformation and upgrading policies on the market performance of China's coal-fire power generation industry

The long-term effects of transformation and upgrading policies on the market performance of China's coal-fire power generation industry

Transformation and upgrading of traditional energy industries have increasing theoretical and practical relevance in today’s economic orientation of sustainable development. Many governments have tried to issue a batch of transformation and upgrading (TFU) policies with the hope of guiding traditional enterprises’ smooth change. However, there is a dearth of systematic research on the long-term effects of TFU policies, which is not conducive to improving those policies. This paper aims to study what TFU policies generate to concerned traditional energy enterprises in the long run from a perspective of capital asset pricing. Taking China’s coal-fired power generation industry, the typical and the largest traditional energy industry, as the sample, 318 TFU policies issued by the Chinese government and the relevant data of A-share listed coal and thermal power enterprises in the industry were collected. The Latent Dirichlet Allocation model was employed to categorize the TFU policies into six types, and then the Jensen alpha model was built to test the long-term effects of each type of TFU policy at varying lagged periods. The results show that under all the types of TFU policies, the Jensen alpha values of both coal and thermal power stock portfolios are significantly negative at each lagged period, implying negative long-term effects. Further statistical analysis shows that the Jensen alpha values of central state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are stochastically larger than those of local SOEs under most types of TFU policies, indicating that central SOEs are generally less negatively affected. Moreover, the varying characteristics of the Jensen alpha values between coal and thermal power portfolios and between central and local SOEs were discussed.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
6.60
自引率
0.00%
发文量
50
审稿时长
3 months
期刊介绍: The Earth''s biosphere is being transformed by various anthropogenic activities. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change addresses a wide range of environment, economic and energy topics and timely issues including global climate change, stratospheric ozone depletion, acid deposition, eutrophication of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, species extinction and loss of biological diversity, deforestation and forest degradation, desertification, soil resource degradation, land-use change, sea level rise, destruction of coastal zones, depletion of fresh water and marine fisheries, loss of wetlands and riparian zones and hazardous waste management. Response options to mitigate these threats or to adapt to changing environs are needed to ensure a sustainable biosphere for all forms of life. To that end, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change provides a forum to encourage the conceptualization, critical examination and debate regarding response options. The aim of this journal is to provide a forum to review, analyze and stimulate the development, testing and implementation of mitigation and adaptation strategies at regional, national and global scales. One of the primary goals of this journal is to contribute to real-time policy analysis and development as national and international policies and agreements are discussed and promulgated.
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