Market Penetration Rate Optimization for Mobility Benefits of Connected Vehicles: A Bayesian Optimization Approach

The advancements of connected vehicle (CV) technologies promise significant safety, mobility, and environmental benefits for future transportation systems. These benefits will largely rely on the market penetration rate (MPR) of CVs and connected infrastructure. However, higher MPR is not guaranteed to result in greater benefits in a transportation system in some cases even if we do not consider the deployment cost of CVs. Therefore, understanding the optimal CV MPR to achieve the best system benefits is informative and can provide some guidance for transportation agencies to use appropriate incentives or other policies to potentially affect the speed of CV adoption. Instead of using the traditional incremental method, this paper proposed a simulation-based approach combined with Bayesian optimization to determine the optimal CV MPR that achieves the highest performance benefits for a freeway segment. The proposed methodology is tested in the I-210 E (in California, U.S.) simulation freeway segment built and calibrated in Simulation of Urban Mobility software as a case study. The weighted sum of the average total travel time on the mainline and the average queue length of on-ramps is formulated as the objective function to optimize the CV MPR. Different weight combinations are tested as different scenarios. The optimization results of these scenarios show that, when the weight of total travel time is high, the optimal CV MPR tends to be high. On the contrary, when the weight of queue length increases, higher CV MPRs may not guarantee higher benefits for the traffic system. The globally optimal CV MPR can be as low as 3%. The case study also confirms the effectiveness of optimizing the CV MPR based on microsimulation and Bayesian optimization.