{"title":"有连续动作的竞赛实验研究","authors":"Arthur B. Nelson, Dmitry Ryvkin","doi":"arxiv-2409.06230","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"We study experimentally contests in which players make investment decisions\nsequentially, and information on prior investments is revealed between stages.\nUsing a between-subject design, we consider all possible sequences in contests\nof three players and test two major comparative statics of the subgame-perfect\nNash equilibrium: The positive effect of the number of stages on aggregate\ninvestment and earlier mover advantage. The former prediction is decidedly\nrejected, as we observe a reduction in aggregate investment when more\nsequential information disclosure stages are added to the contest. The evidence\non earlier mover advantage is mixed but mostly does not support theory as well.\nBoth predictions rely critically on large preemptive investment by first movers\nand accommodation by later movers, which does not materialize. Instead, later\nmovers respond aggressively, and reciprocally, to first movers' investments,\nwhile first movers learn to accommodate those responses.","PeriodicalId":501273,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - ECON - General Economics","volume":"60 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Contests with sequential moves: An experimental study\",\"authors\":\"Arthur B. Nelson, Dmitry Ryvkin\",\"doi\":\"arxiv-2409.06230\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"We study experimentally contests in which players make investment decisions\\nsequentially, and information on prior investments is revealed between stages.\\nUsing a between-subject design, we consider all possible sequences in contests\\nof three players and test two major comparative statics of the subgame-perfect\\nNash equilibrium: The positive effect of the number of stages on aggregate\\ninvestment and earlier mover advantage. The former prediction is decidedly\\nrejected, as we observe a reduction in aggregate investment when more\\nsequential information disclosure stages are added to the contest. The evidence\\non earlier mover advantage is mixed but mostly does not support theory as well.\\nBoth predictions rely critically on large preemptive investment by first movers\\nand accommodation by later movers, which does not materialize. Instead, later\\nmovers respond aggressively, and reciprocally, to first movers' investments,\\nwhile first movers learn to accommodate those responses.\",\"PeriodicalId\":501273,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"arXiv - ECON - General Economics\",\"volume\":\"60 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-09-10\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"arXiv - ECON - General Economics\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/arxiv-2409.06230\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"arXiv - ECON - General Economics","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2409.06230","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Contests with sequential moves: An experimental study
We study experimentally contests in which players make investment decisions
sequentially, and information on prior investments is revealed between stages.
Using a between-subject design, we consider all possible sequences in contests
of three players and test two major comparative statics of the subgame-perfect
Nash equilibrium: The positive effect of the number of stages on aggregate
investment and earlier mover advantage. The former prediction is decidedly
rejected, as we observe a reduction in aggregate investment when more
sequential information disclosure stages are added to the contest. The evidence
on earlier mover advantage is mixed but mostly does not support theory as well.
Both predictions rely critically on large preemptive investment by first movers
and accommodation by later movers, which does not materialize. Instead, later
movers respond aggressively, and reciprocally, to first movers' investments,
while first movers learn to accommodate those responses.