CO2 and summer insolation as drivers for the Mid-Pleistocene transition

Abstract. During the Mid-Pleistocene transition (MPT) the dominant periodicity of glacial cycles increased from 41 thousand years (kyr) to an average of 100 kyr, without any appreciable change in the orbital pacing. As the MPT is not a linear response to orbital forcing, it must have resulted from feedback processes in the Earth system. However, the precise mechanisms underlying the transition are still under debate. In this study, we investigate the MPT by simulating the Northern Hemisphere ice sheet evolution over the past 1.5 million years. The transient climate forcing of the ice-sheet model was obtained using a matrix method, by interpolating between two snapshots of global climate model simulations. Changes in climate forcing are caused by variations in CO₂, insolation, as well as implicit climate–ice sheet feedbacks. Using this method, we were able to capture glacial-interglacial variability during the past 1.5 million years and reproduce the shift from 41 kyr to 100 kyr cycles without any additional drivers. Instead, the modelled frequency change results from the prescribed CO₂ combined with orbital forcing, and ice sheet feedbacks. Early Pleistocene terminations are initiated by insolation maxima. After the MPT, low CO₂ levels can compensate insolation maxima which favour deglaciation, leading to an increasing glacial cycle periodicity. These deglaciations are also prevented by a relatively small North American ice sheet, which, through its location and feedback processes, can generate a relatively stable climate. Larger North American ice sheets become more sensitive to small temperature increases. Therefore, Late Pleistocene terminations are facilitated by the large ice-sheet volume, were small changes in temperature lead to self-sustained melt instead. This concept is confirmed by experiments using constant insolation or CO₂. The constant CO₂ experiments generally capture only the Early Pleistocene cycles, while those with constant insolation only capture Late Pleistocene cycles. Additionally, we find that a lowering of CO₂concentrations leads to an increasing number of insolation maxima that fail to initiate terminations. These results therefore suggest a regime shift, where during the Early Pleistocene, glacial cycles are dominated by orbital oscillations, while Late Pleistocene cycles tend to be more dominated by CO₂. This implies that the MPT can be explained by a decrease in glacial CO₂ concentration superimposed on orbital forcing.