{"title":"碳社会成本的趋势和偏差","authors":"Richard S. J. Tol","doi":"arxiv-2409.08158","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"An updated and extended meta-analysis confirms that the central estimate of\nthe social cost of carbon is around $200/tC with a large, right-skewed\nuncertainty and trending up. The pure rate of time preference and the inverse\nof the elasticity of intertemporal substitution are key assumptions, the total\nimpact of 2.5K warming less so. The social cost of carbon is much higher if\nclimate change is assumed to affect economic growth rather than the level of\noutput and welfare. The literature is dominated by a relatively small network\nof authors, based in a few countries. Publication and citation bias have pushed\nthe social cost of carbon up.","PeriodicalId":501293,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - ECON - Econometrics","volume":"1566 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Trends and biases in the social cost of carbon\",\"authors\":\"Richard S. J. Tol\",\"doi\":\"arxiv-2409.08158\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"An updated and extended meta-analysis confirms that the central estimate of\\nthe social cost of carbon is around $200/tC with a large, right-skewed\\nuncertainty and trending up. The pure rate of time preference and the inverse\\nof the elasticity of intertemporal substitution are key assumptions, the total\\nimpact of 2.5K warming less so. The social cost of carbon is much higher if\\nclimate change is assumed to affect economic growth rather than the level of\\noutput and welfare. The literature is dominated by a relatively small network\\nof authors, based in a few countries. Publication and citation bias have pushed\\nthe social cost of carbon up.\",\"PeriodicalId\":501293,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"arXiv - ECON - Econometrics\",\"volume\":\"1566 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-09-12\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"arXiv - ECON - Econometrics\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/arxiv-2409.08158\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"arXiv - ECON - Econometrics","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2409.08158","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
An updated and extended meta-analysis confirms that the central estimate of
the social cost of carbon is around $200/tC with a large, right-skewed
uncertainty and trending up. The pure rate of time preference and the inverse
of the elasticity of intertemporal substitution are key assumptions, the total
impact of 2.5K warming less so. The social cost of carbon is much higher if
climate change is assumed to affect economic growth rather than the level of
output and welfare. The literature is dominated by a relatively small network
of authors, based in a few countries. Publication and citation bias have pushed
the social cost of carbon up.