{"title":"绿色转型会带来通货膨胀吗？预期很重要","authors":"Alessandro Ferrari, Valerio LandiNispi Landi","doi":"10.1057/s41308-024-00262-x","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>We analyze the inflationary effects of a gradual increase in a carbon tax in the textbook New Keynesian model. The policy gradually reduces emissions, a key feature of the green transition. We find that the increase in the tax today exerts inflationary pressures, but the expected further increase in the tax tomorrow depresses current demand, putting downward pressure on prices: We show that the second effect is larger. If households do not anticipate a future fall in income (because they are not rational or the government is not credible), the overall effect may be inflationary. We extend the analysis in a medium-scale DSGE model, and we find again that the green transition is deflationary. Also in this larger model, by relaxing the rational expectations assumption, we show that the transition may initially be inflationary.</p>","PeriodicalId":47177,"journal":{"name":"Imf Economic Review","volume":"2016 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3000,"publicationDate":"2024-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Will the Green Transition be Inflationary? Expectations Matter\",\"authors\":\"Alessandro Ferrari, Valerio LandiNispi Landi\",\"doi\":\"10.1057/s41308-024-00262-x\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>We analyze the inflationary effects of a gradual increase in a carbon tax in the textbook New Keynesian model. The policy gradually reduces emissions, a key feature of the green transition. We find that the increase in the tax today exerts inflationary pressures, but the expected further increase in the tax tomorrow depresses current demand, putting downward pressure on prices: We show that the second effect is larger. If households do not anticipate a future fall in income (because they are not rational or the government is not credible), the overall effect may be inflationary. We extend the analysis in a medium-scale DSGE model, and we find again that the green transition is deflationary. Also in this larger model, by relaxing the rational expectations assumption, we show that the transition may initially be inflationary.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":47177,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Imf Economic Review\",\"volume\":\"2016 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.3000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-08-20\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Imf Economic Review\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1057/s41308-024-00262-x\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"BUSINESS, FINANCE\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Imf Economic Review","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1057/s41308-024-00262-x","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"BUSINESS, FINANCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
Will the Green Transition be Inflationary? Expectations Matter
We analyze the inflationary effects of a gradual increase in a carbon tax in the textbook New Keynesian model. The policy gradually reduces emissions, a key feature of the green transition. We find that the increase in the tax today exerts inflationary pressures, but the expected further increase in the tax tomorrow depresses current demand, putting downward pressure on prices: We show that the second effect is larger. If households do not anticipate a future fall in income (because they are not rational or the government is not credible), the overall effect may be inflationary. We extend the analysis in a medium-scale DSGE model, and we find again that the green transition is deflationary. Also in this larger model, by relaxing the rational expectations assumption, we show that the transition may initially be inflationary.
期刊介绍：
The IMF Economic Review is the official research journal of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). It is dedicated to publishing peer-reviewed, high-quality, context-related academic research on open-economy macroeconomics. It emphasizes rigorous analysis with an empirical orientation that is of interest to a broad audience, including academics and policymakers. Studies that borrow from, and interact with, other fields such as finance, international trade, political economy, labor, economic history or development are also welcome.
The views presented in published papers are those of the authors and should not be attributed to, or reported as, reflecting the position of the IMF, its Executive Board, or any other organization mentioned herein.
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