在地震台网覆盖范围有限的地区估算流行型余震序列模型的时空变量参数:东非大裂谷系统案例研究

IF 2.8 3区 地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS
Thystere Matondo Bantidi, Takeo Ishibe, Georges Mavonga Tuluka, Bogdan Enescu
{"title":"在地震台网覆盖范围有限的地区估算流行型余震序列模型的时空变量参数:东非大裂谷系统案例研究","authors":"Thystere Matondo Bantidi, Takeo Ishibe, Georges Mavonga Tuluka, Bogdan Enescu","doi":"10.1093/gji/ggae299","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Summary The Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model is currently the most powerful statistical seismicity model that reproduces the general characteristics of earthquake clustering in space and time. However, its application can be hampered by biased parameter estimations related to earthquake catalog deficiencies, particularly in regions where the spatial coverage of local recording networks is relatively poor. Here, we systematically investigate the possible influences of the effect introduced by data truncation through the choice of the cutoff magnitude (${m}_{cut})$ and missing events due to heterogeneity of the seismic network on ETAS parameter estimates along the East African Rift System (EARS). After dividing the region into six source zones based on rheological and mechanical behaviors, the ETAS model is fitted to the earthquakes within each zone using the Davidon-Fletcher-Powell optimization algorithm. The fits and variations in parameter estimates are compared for each zone to the others and the seismological implications are discussed. We found that some parameters vary as a function of ${m}_{cut}$ primarily driven by changes in catalog size. Additionally, a systematic regional dependency of ETAS parameters is found across source zones. Furthermore, a median heat flow value for each analyzed source zone in the EARS is calculated. In contrast to previous findings in other tectonic settings, the results reveal no significant correlations between the crustal heat flows and the ETAS parameters describing earthquake productivity (${K}_0$) and the relative efficiency of an earthquake with magnitude M to produce aftershocks ($\\alpha $). Our findings have significant implications for understanding the mechanisms of earthquake interaction and, therefore, provide tight constraints on the model's parameters that may serve as a testbed for existing earthquake forecasting models in this region where the vulnerability of local buildings and structures exacerbate seismic risk.","PeriodicalId":12519,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Journal International","volume":"151 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8000,"publicationDate":"2024-08-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Estimating spatio-temporal variable parameters of Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence model in a region with limited seismic network coverage: a case study of the East African Rift System\",\"authors\":\"Thystere Matondo Bantidi, Takeo Ishibe, Georges Mavonga Tuluka, Bogdan Enescu\",\"doi\":\"10.1093/gji/ggae299\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Summary The Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model is currently the most powerful statistical seismicity model that reproduces the general characteristics of earthquake clustering in space and time. However, its application can be hampered by biased parameter estimations related to earthquake catalog deficiencies, particularly in regions where the spatial coverage of local recording networks is relatively poor. Here, we systematically investigate the possible influences of the effect introduced by data truncation through the choice of the cutoff magnitude (${m}_{cut})$ and missing events due to heterogeneity of the seismic network on ETAS parameter estimates along the East African Rift System (EARS). After dividing the region into six source zones based on rheological and mechanical behaviors, the ETAS model is fitted to the earthquakes within each zone using the Davidon-Fletcher-Powell optimization algorithm. The fits and variations in parameter estimates are compared for each zone to the others and the seismological implications are discussed. We found that some parameters vary as a function of ${m}_{cut}$ primarily driven by changes in catalog size. Additionally, a systematic regional dependency of ETAS parameters is found across source zones. Furthermore, a median heat flow value for each analyzed source zone in the EARS is calculated. In contrast to previous findings in other tectonic settings, the results reveal no significant correlations between the crustal heat flows and the ETAS parameters describing earthquake productivity (${K}_0$) and the relative efficiency of an earthquake with magnitude M to produce aftershocks ($\\\\alpha $). Our findings have significant implications for understanding the mechanisms of earthquake interaction and, therefore, provide tight constraints on the model's parameters that may serve as a testbed for existing earthquake forecasting models in this region where the vulnerability of local buildings and structures exacerbate seismic risk.\",\"PeriodicalId\":12519,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Geophysical Journal International\",\"volume\":\"151 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.8000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-08-23\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Geophysical Journal International\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggae299\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Geophysical Journal International","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggae299","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

摘要

摘要 流行型余震序列(ETAS)模型是目前最强大的地震统计模型,它能在空间和时间上再现地震群集的一般特征。然而,由于地震目录的缺陷,特别是在当地记录网络的空间覆盖率相对较低的地区,其应用可能会受到参数估计偏差的影响。在此,我们系统地研究了东非大裂谷系统(EARS)沿线通过选择截断震级(${m}_{cut})$引入的数据截断效应和地震网络异质性导致的缺失事件对 ETAS 参数估计的可能影响。根据流变学和力学行为将该区域划分为六个震源区,然后使用 Davidon-Fletcher-Powell 优化算法对每个震源区内的地震进行 ETAS 模型拟合。比较了每个区域与其他区域的拟合结果和参数估计的变化,并讨论了其地震学意义。我们发现,一些参数随${m}_{cut}$的变化而变化,主要是受目录大小变化的驱动。此外,我们还发现不同震源区的 ETAS 参数具有系统的区域依赖性。此外,还计算出了 EARS 中每个分析源区的热流中值。与之前在其他构造环境中的发现不同,结果显示地壳热流与描述地震生产力(${K}_0$)和 M 级地震产生余震的相对效率($\alpha$)的 ETAS 参数之间没有明显的相关性。我们的研究结果对理解地震相互作用机制具有重要意义,因此对模型参数提供了严格的约束,可作为该地区现有地震预报模型的试验平台,因为当地建筑物和结构的脆弱性加剧了地震风险。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Estimating spatio-temporal variable parameters of Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence model in a region with limited seismic network coverage: a case study of the East African Rift System
Summary The Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model is currently the most powerful statistical seismicity model that reproduces the general characteristics of earthquake clustering in space and time. However, its application can be hampered by biased parameter estimations related to earthquake catalog deficiencies, particularly in regions where the spatial coverage of local recording networks is relatively poor. Here, we systematically investigate the possible influences of the effect introduced by data truncation through the choice of the cutoff magnitude (${m}_{cut})$ and missing events due to heterogeneity of the seismic network on ETAS parameter estimates along the East African Rift System (EARS). After dividing the region into six source zones based on rheological and mechanical behaviors, the ETAS model is fitted to the earthquakes within each zone using the Davidon-Fletcher-Powell optimization algorithm. The fits and variations in parameter estimates are compared for each zone to the others and the seismological implications are discussed. We found that some parameters vary as a function of ${m}_{cut}$ primarily driven by changes in catalog size. Additionally, a systematic regional dependency of ETAS parameters is found across source zones. Furthermore, a median heat flow value for each analyzed source zone in the EARS is calculated. In contrast to previous findings in other tectonic settings, the results reveal no significant correlations between the crustal heat flows and the ETAS parameters describing earthquake productivity (${K}_0$) and the relative efficiency of an earthquake with magnitude M to produce aftershocks ($\alpha $). Our findings have significant implications for understanding the mechanisms of earthquake interaction and, therefore, provide tight constraints on the model's parameters that may serve as a testbed for existing earthquake forecasting models in this region where the vulnerability of local buildings and structures exacerbate seismic risk.
求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
Geophysical Journal International
Geophysical Journal International 地学-地球化学与地球物理
CiteScore
5.40
自引率
10.70%
发文量
436
审稿时长
3.3 months
期刊介绍: Geophysical Journal International publishes top quality research papers, express letters, invited review papers and book reviews on all aspects of theoretical, computational, applied and observational geophysics.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术官方微信