A new automated procedure to obtain reliable moment tensor solutions of small to moderate earthquakes (3.0 ≤ M ≤ 5.5) in the Bayesian framework

Summary The complete catalog of moment tensor (MT) solutions is essential for a wide range of research in solid earth science. However, the number of reliable MT solutions for small to moderate earthquakes (3.0 ≤ M ≤ 5.5) is limited due to uncertainties arising from data and theoretical errors. In this study, we develop a new procedure to enhance the resolvability of MT solutions and provide more reliable uncertainty estimates for these smaller to moderate earthquakes. This procedure is fully automatic and efficiently accounts for both data and theoretical errors through two sets of hybrid linear-nonlinear Bayesian inversions. In the inversion process, the covariance matrix is estimated using an empirical approach: the data covariance matrix is derived from the pre-event noise and the theoretical covariance matrix is derived from the residuals of the initial solution. We conducted tests using synthetic data generated from the 3D velocity model and interference from background seismic noise. The tests found that using a combination of the non-Toeplitz data covariance matrix and the Toeplitz theoretical covariance matrix improves the solution and its uncertainties. Test results also suggest that including a theoretical covariance matrix when analyzing MT in complex tectonic regions is essential, even if we have the best 1D velocity model. The application to earthquakes in the northern region of the Banda Arc resulted in the first published Regional Moment Tensor (RMT) catalog, containing more than three times the number of trusted solutions compared to the Global Centroid Moment Tensor (GCMT) and the Indonesian Agency for Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics Moment Tensor (BMKG-MT) catalog. The comparison shows that the trusted solutions align well with the focal mechanism of the GCMT and BMKG-MT, as well as with the maximum horizontal stress of the World Stress Map, and tectonic conditions in the study area. The newly obtained focal mechanisms provide several key findings: (i) They confirm that the deformation in the northern and eastern parts of Seram Island is influenced by oblique intraplate convergence rather than by the subduction process; (ii) They validate the newly identified Amahai Fault with a greater number of focal mechanisms; (iii) They reveal an earthquake Mw 4.7 with the same location and source mechanism six years before the 2019 Ambon-Kairatu earthquake (Mw 6.5) which occurred on a previously unidentified fault.