Patient-specific prediction of regional lung mechanics in ARDS patients with physics-based models: A validation study

The choice of lung protective ventilation settings for mechanical ventilation has a considerable impact on patient outcome, yet identifying optimal ventilatory settings for individual patients remains highly challenging due to the inherent inter- and intra-patient pathophysiological variability. In this validation study, we demonstrate that physics-based computational lung models tailored to individual patients can resolve this variability, allowing us to predict the otherwise unknown local state of the pathologically affected lung during mechanical ventilation. For seven ARDS patients undergoing invasive mechanical ventilation, physics-based, patient-specific lung models were created using chest CT scans and ventilatory data. By numerically resolving the interaction of the pathological lung with the airway pressure and flow imparted by the ventilator, we predict the time-dependent and heterogeneous local state of the lung for each patient and compare it against the regional ventilation obtained from bedside monitoring using Electrical Impedance Tomography. Excellent agreement between numerical simulations and experimental data was obtained, with the model-predicted anteroposterior ventilation profile achieving a Pearson correlation of 96% with the clinical reference data. Even when considering the regional ventilation within the entire transverse chest cross-section and across the entire dynamic ventilation range, an average correlation of more than 81% and an average root mean square error of less than 15% were achieved. The results of this first systematic validation study demonstrate the ability of computational models to provide clinically relevant information and thereby open the door for a truly patient-specific choice of ventilator settings on the basis of both individual anatomy and pathophysiology.