评估气候变化对半干旱环境下马铃薯-土豆种植系统的影响并设计适应策略

IF 2.3 3区 农林科学 Q1 AGRONOMY
Sahrish Naz, Mukhtar Ahmed, Ghulam Abbas, Zartash Fatima, Sajjad Hussain, Pakeeza Iqbal, Abdul Ghani, Muhammad Ali, Tahir Hussain Awan, Noreen Samad, Muhammad Aasim, Sezai Ercisli, Shakeel Ahmad
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引用次数: 0

摘要

以热浪、暴雨和洪水为表现形式的气候变化正在对巴基斯坦的粮食安全产生影响。马铃薯是受气候变化影响地区的主要经济作物。然而,气候变化对马铃薯-马铃薯种植系统的影响评估尚未得到研究。因此,在本研究中,我们使用 DSSAT-CSM-SUBSTOR-Potato 模型研究了预测气候变化和主要适应方案对马铃薯-马铃薯种植系统的影响。利用 2019 年春季和秋季田间试验数据对模型进行了校准,并分别利用 2019 年和 2020 年春季和秋季数据对模型进行了评估。校准和评估后,对模型进行了碳、温、水、氮(CTWN)敏感性分析,并应用该分析确定了本世纪中期气候变暖和降雨量变化对春秋季马铃薯的影响。结果表明,在基线期(1980-2020 年),春季生长季的最高气温(Tmax)和最低气温(Tmin)分别升高了 0.7 ℃ 和 0.8 ℃,秋季生长季的最高气温(Tmax)和最低气温(Tmin)分别升高了 0.8 ℃ 和 0.9 ℃。此外,据预测,秋季马铃薯受气候变化的影响将大于春季马铃薯。根据未来预测,春季种植马铃薯的温度变化(Tmin)为 2.7 至 3.8 °C,温度变化(Tmax)为 2.1 至 3.4 °C。但在秋季,马铃薯的最高气温将从2.4 ℃升至3.6 ℃,最低气温将从2.7 ℃升至4.0 ℃。模拟结果显示,如果不采取适应策略,春季和秋季马铃薯的块茎产量将分别减少 23% 至 29% 和 19% 至 36%。而采用适当的适应策略,如施肥、调整种植日期(春马铃薯提早种植 15 天,秋马铃薯推迟种植 20 天)、增加热量需求时间的栽培品种、增加 12% 的植株数量和氮量,则本世纪中期春马铃薯块茎产量可增加 9% 至 13%,秋马铃薯块茎产量可增加 10% 至 14%。因此,农民应采取上述适当的适应策略,以减少气候变化对马铃薯产量的负面影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Potato-Potato Cropping System Under Semi-arid Environment and Designing of Adaptation Strategies

Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Potato-Potato Cropping System Under Semi-arid Environment and Designing of Adaptation Strategies

Climate change in the form of heat waves, torrential rains and floods is showing impact on the food security in Pakistan. Potato is the main cash crop of the region affected by climate change. However, impact assessment of climate change for the potato-potato cropping system has not been studied yet. Hence, in the present study, we studied the impact of projected climate change and key adaptation options on the potato-potato cropping system using the DSSAT-CSM-SUBSTOR-Potato model. The model was calibrated using 2019 spring and fall season field experiments data, while evaluation was made using spring and fall season data of 2019 and 2020 respectively. After calibration and evaluation, model sensitivity analysis for carbon, temperature, water and nitrogen (CTWN) was performed, and after that, it was applied to determine the impact of climate warming and change in rainfall on spring and fall potato during mid-century. The results revealed that during the baseline period (1980–2020), maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) air temperature were increased by 0.7 and 0.8 °C during the spring growing season and by 0.8 and 0.9 °C during the autumn growing season, respectively. Furthermore, it was projected that autumn potato will be more influenced due to climate change than spring potato. Under future projections, temperature change for spring planted potato will be 2.7 to 3.8 °C for Tmin and 2.1 to 3.4 °C for Tmax. However for the autumn seasons, potato increase in maximum temperature will be from 2.4 to 3.6 °C and for minimum temperature the change will be from 2.7 to 4.0 °C. Simulation outcome showed that without adaptation strategies, tuber yield will be reduced from 23 to 29% and from 19 to 36% in spring and fall potato, respectively. While with adopting suitable adaptation strategies such as fertigation, planting date adjustment (earlier planting of spring potato by 15 days and delayed planting of fall by 20 days), higher thermal time requiring cultivars, increase of 12% in plant population and nitrogen quantity, tuber yield can be increased by 9 to 13% during spring and by 10 to 14% during autumn potato during mid-century. Therefore, farmers should adopt suitable adaptation strategies as mentioned to reduce the negative impact of climate change on potato yield.

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来源期刊
Potato Research
Potato Research AGRONOMY-
CiteScore
5.50
自引率
6.90%
发文量
66
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Potato Research, the journal of the European Association for Potato Research (EAPR), promotes the exchange of information on all aspects of this fast-evolving global industry. It offers the latest developments in innovative research to scientists active in potato research. The journal includes authoritative coverage of new scientific developments, publishing original research and review papers on such topics as: Molecular sciences; Breeding; Physiology; Pathology; Nematology; Virology; Agronomy; Engineering and Utilization.
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