Remote sensing insights into land cover dynamics and socio-economic Drivers: The case of Mtendeli refugee camp, Tanzania (2016–2022)

The purpose of this article is to present the scope and the dynamics of the environmental changes unfolded in the vicinity of Mtendeli refugee camp. It presents a new method, which combines geospatial analysis of high-resolution Earth observation data (Sentinel-1&2) with ground-based observations and input from local experts. Time series classifications of annual land use/land cover in the surroundings of the camp is developed from remote data. Subsequently main transitions and trends are quantitatively achieved. This is a first study which, not only treats the land transition process in a comprehensive manner, but also tracks the changes and their main drivers on an annual scale over the lifetime of the camp (2016–2021) and the post-closure situation in 2022. Most importantly, thanks to the involvement of social studies, it unfolds the socio-economical drivers of those changes. Drawing upon a random forest algorithm and available databases, we achieve overall classification accuracies of 83.5% (2020) and 82.0% (2022). Our findings indicate an ongoing expansion of cropland between 2016 and 2021, to the detriment of natural vegetation classes. The impact of environmental restoration programs implemented in the former camp area is visible by 2022. The proposed method can be used to identify areas of environmental risk and thus support decisions linked with sustainable development and land management.