{"title":"有限样本保证线性动力系统的在线变化点检测","authors":"Lei Xin , George T.-C. Chiu , Shreyas Sundaram","doi":"10.1016/j.automatica.2024.111894","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The problem of online change point detection is to detect abrupt changes in properties of time series, ideally as soon as possible after those changes occur. Existing work on online change point detection either assumes i.i.d. data, focuses on asymptotic analysis, does not present theoretical guarantees on the trade-off between detection accuracy and detection delay, or is only suitable for detecting single change points. In this work, we study the online change point detection problem for linear dynamical systems with unknown dynamics, where the data exhibits temporal correlations and the system could have multiple change points. We develop a data-dependent threshold that can be used in our test that allows one to achieve a pre-specified upper bound on the probability of making a false alarm. We further provide a finite-sample-based bound for the probability of detecting a change point. Our bound demonstrates how parameters used in our algorithm affect the detection probability and delay, and provides guidance on the minimum required time between changes to guarantee detection.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":55413,"journal":{"name":"Automatica","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.8000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0005109824003881/pdfft?md5=253252efe9e72628a7809ea795bb855e&pid=1-s2.0-S0005109824003881-main.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Online change points detection for linear dynamical systems with finite sample guarantees\",\"authors\":\"Lei Xin , George T.-C. Chiu , Shreyas Sundaram\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.automatica.2024.111894\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>The problem of online change point detection is to detect abrupt changes in properties of time series, ideally as soon as possible after those changes occur. Existing work on online change point detection either assumes i.i.d. data, focuses on asymptotic analysis, does not present theoretical guarantees on the trade-off between detection accuracy and detection delay, or is only suitable for detecting single change points. In this work, we study the online change point detection problem for linear dynamical systems with unknown dynamics, where the data exhibits temporal correlations and the system could have multiple change points. We develop a data-dependent threshold that can be used in our test that allows one to achieve a pre-specified upper bound on the probability of making a false alarm. We further provide a finite-sample-based bound for the probability of detecting a change point. Our bound demonstrates how parameters used in our algorithm affect the detection probability and delay, and provides guidance on the minimum required time between changes to guarantee detection.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":55413,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Automatica\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":4.8000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-09-07\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0005109824003881/pdfft?md5=253252efe9e72628a7809ea795bb855e&pid=1-s2.0-S0005109824003881-main.pdf\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Automatica\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"94\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0005109824003881\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"计算机科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"AUTOMATION & CONTROL SYSTEMS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Automatica","FirstCategoryId":"94","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0005109824003881","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"计算机科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"AUTOMATION & CONTROL SYSTEMS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Online change points detection for linear dynamical systems with finite sample guarantees
The problem of online change point detection is to detect abrupt changes in properties of time series, ideally as soon as possible after those changes occur. Existing work on online change point detection either assumes i.i.d. data, focuses on asymptotic analysis, does not present theoretical guarantees on the trade-off between detection accuracy and detection delay, or is only suitable for detecting single change points. In this work, we study the online change point detection problem for linear dynamical systems with unknown dynamics, where the data exhibits temporal correlations and the system could have multiple change points. We develop a data-dependent threshold that can be used in our test that allows one to achieve a pre-specified upper bound on the probability of making a false alarm. We further provide a finite-sample-based bound for the probability of detecting a change point. Our bound demonstrates how parameters used in our algorithm affect the detection probability and delay, and provides guidance on the minimum required time between changes to guarantee detection.
期刊介绍:
Automatica is a leading archival publication in the field of systems and control. The field encompasses today a broad set of areas and topics, and is thriving not only within itself but also in terms of its impact on other fields, such as communications, computers, biology, energy and economics. Since its inception in 1963, Automatica has kept abreast with the evolution of the field over the years, and has emerged as a leading publication driving the trends in the field.
After being founded in 1963, Automatica became a journal of the International Federation of Automatic Control (IFAC) in 1969. It features a characteristic blend of theoretical and applied papers of archival, lasting value, reporting cutting edge research results by authors across the globe. It features articles in distinct categories, including regular, brief and survey papers, technical communiqués, correspondence items, as well as reviews on published books of interest to the readership. It occasionally publishes special issues on emerging new topics or established mature topics of interest to a broad audience.
Automatica solicits original high-quality contributions in all the categories listed above, and in all areas of systems and control interpreted in a broad sense and evolving constantly. They may be submitted directly to a subject editor or to the Editor-in-Chief if not sure about the subject area. Editorial procedures in place assure careful, fair, and prompt handling of all submitted articles. Accepted papers appear in the journal in the shortest time feasible given production time constraints.