A prognostic nomogram for T3N0M0 esophageal squamous cell carcinoma patients undergoing radical surgery based on computed tomography radiomics and inflammatory nutritional biomarkers

Background

This study explores the significance of computed tomography (CT) radiomic features, along with inflammation and nutrition biomarkers, in the prognosis of postoperative patients with T3N0M0 esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). The study aims to construct a related nomogram.

Methods

A total of 114 patients were enrolled and randomly assigned to training and validation cohorts in a 7:3 ratio. Radiomic features were extracted from their preoperative chest-enhanced CT arterial images of the primary tumor, and inflammatory and nutritional indices, including neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), systemic immune-inflammation index (SII), and prognostic nutritional index (PNI), were calculated based on laboratory data from the 3 days before surgery. Intra-class correlations coefficient (ICC) and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) were applied to screen valuable radiomics features predicting overall survival (OS), and the Rad-score was calculated. In the training cohort, univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses identified independent prognostic factors, which were adopted to establish the nomogram.

Results

Eight radiomic features were selected for Rad-score calculation. Multivariate Cox regression revealed Rad-score, PNI, NLR, and PLR as independent prognostic factors for ESCC patients (p < 0.05). A nomogram was constructed based on these variables. The concordance index (C-index) for the nomogram was 0.797 (95% CI: 0.726–0.868) in the training cohort and 0.796 (95% CI: 0.702–0.890) in the validation cohort. Calibration curves indicated good calibration ability, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis demonstrated superior discriminative ability for the nomogram in comparison to the Rad-score alone. Decision curve analysis (DCA) confirmed the clinical utility of the nomogram.

Conclusion

We developed and validated a nomogram for predicting the OS of postoperative T3N0M0 ESCC patients, integrating nutritional, inflammatory markers, and radiomic signature. The combined nomogram can serve as a robust tool for risk stratification and clinical management.