Opportunistic Assessment of Hip Fracture Risk Based on Chest CT.

Objective: Hip fracture (HF) has been described as the "last fracture of life" in the elderly, so the assessment of HF risk is extremely important. Currently, few studies have examined the relationship between imaging data from chest computed tomography (CT) and HF. This study demonstrated that pectoral muscle index (PMI) and vertebral body attenuation values could predict HF, aiming to opportunistically assess the risk of HF in patients without bone mineral density (BMD) based on chest CT for other diseases.

Methods: In the retrospective study, 800 participants who had both BMD and chest CT were enrolled from January 2021 to January 2024. After exclusion, 472 patients were finally enrolled, divided into the healthy control (HC) group and the HF group. Clinical data were collected, and differences between the two groups were compared. A predictive model was constructed based on the PMI and CT value of the fourth thoracic vertebra (T4HU) by logistic regression analysis, and the predictive effect of the model was analyzed by using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Finally, the clinical utility of the model was analyzed using decision curve analysis (DCA) and clinical impact curves.

Results: Both PMI and T4HU were lower in the HF group than in the HC group (p < 0.05); low PMI and low T4HU were risk factors for HF. The predictive model incorporating PMI and T4HU on the basis of age and BMI had excellent diagnostic efficacy with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.865 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.830-0.894, p < 0.01), sensitivity and specificity of 0.820 and 0.754, respectively. The clinical utility of the model was validated using calibration curves and DCA. The AUC of the predictive model incorporating BMD based on age and BMI was 0.865 (95% CI: 0.831-0.895, p < 0.01), with sensitivity and specificity of 0.698 and 0.711, respectively. There was no significant difference in diagnostic efficacy between the two models (p = 0.967).

Conclusions: PMI and T4HU are predictors of HF in patients. In the absence of dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA), the risk of HF can be assessed by measuring the PMI and T4HU on chest CT examination due to other diseases, and further treatment can be provided in time to reduce the incidence of HF.