Inhibit or promote: Spatial impacts of multifunctional farmland use transition on grain production from the perspective of major function-oriented zoning

Ensuring global sustainable development depends on achieving food security, a goal intrinsically linked to the farmland's grain production capacity. Despite its critical importance, the comprehensive spatial effects of multifunctional farmland use transition (MFFUT) on grain production, particularly from a production-living-ecology perspective, remain insufficiently explored. Addressing this gap, this study employs geospatial analysis techniques and spatial econometric models to examine the spatial impacts of MFFUT on grain production in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain (HHHP), North China, from the perspective of Major Function-oriented Zoning (MFZ) during 2000–2020. The findings reveal an overall upward trend in grain production in HHHP, with main agricultural production zones emerging as significant grain bases. MFFUT considerably enhances local grain production while suppressing production in neighbouring areas. Specifically, Production Function Farmland Use Transition (PFFUT) and Living Function Farmland Use Transition (LFFUT) stimulate grain production in both local and neighbouring areas, whereas Ecological Function Farmland Use Transition (EFFUT) negatively impacts neighbouring areas while simultaneously bolstering local production. The heterogeneous analysis demonstrates that MFFUT promotes grain production in different MFZs but adversely affects neighbouring regions within main agricultural production zones. Further analysis indicates that PFFUT, LFFUT, and EFFUT considerably enhance grain production across various MFZs. However, PFFUT and LFFUT detrimentally affect neighbouring grain production in main agricultural production zones. This research provides valuable insights for policymakers to formulate optimised land use allocation schemes, implement differentiated land use measures, and safeguard food security.