Carsharing adoption dynamics considering service type and area expansions with insights from a Montreal case study

Carsharing operators (CSOs) are adapting their service over time to meet changing demands and grow their market share. Service areas are enlarged and, in some cities, “dual-mode settings” evolve, incorporating free-floating carsharing (FFcs) as a new service alongside existing station-based carsharing (SBcs). This paper proposes a methodology to discuss adoption dynamics in such a context, specifically focusing on the impact of existing services and service extensions on the adoption of the new service. We propose a framework, comprising of two parts: a potential market assessment and an adoption model. The potential market assessment focuses on establishing the relationships between the local population, carsharing memberships and Points of Interest (POIs) within the given service area. The adoption model then describes the likelihood of consumers adopting the FFcs service. By combining these two models, the effects of service extensions can be assessed. We evaluate the framework using a nearly six year dataset from Communauto, Montreal. The first 35 months of data are set as training data, while the subsequent 33 months are used for validation of predictive performance. Results demonstrate that the proposed model accurately predicts adoption dynamics. Prior experience of SBcs and initial information spread are found to be key parameters for demand prediction determining early adoption peaks and, due to follower effects, also impact long-term demand. Additionally, we quantify the importance of covering residential areas and points of interests in the service area, highlighting the synergy effects of service area expansions.