TripChain2RecDeepSurv: A novel framework to predict transit users’ lifecycle behavior status transitions for user management

Transit users’ lifecycle behavior pattern transition reflects the continuous and multi-phase changes in how frequently and regularly users utilize public transit over their lifetime. Predicting transit users’ lifecycle behavior pattern transition is vital for enhancing the efficiency and responsiveness of transportation systems. Thus, this study incorporates lifecycle analysis in predicting long-term sequential behavioral pattern transition processes to go beyond just examining user churning at a single point in time. Specifically, this study proposes the TripChain2RecDeepSurv, a novel model that pioneers the individual-level analysis of lifecycle behavior status transitions (LBST) within public transit systems. The TripChain2RecDeepSurv is composed of (1) the TripChain2Vec module for encoding transit users’ trip chains; (2) the self-attention Transformer module for exploring the latent features related to spatiotemporal patterns; (3) the recurrent deep survival analysis module for predicting LBSTs. We demonstrate TripChain2RecDeepSurv’s predictive performance for empirical analysis by employing Shenzhen Bus data. Our model achieves a 74.39% accuracy rate in churn determination and over 80% accuracy in status sequence identification on the churn path. In addition, our findings highlight the segmented nature of Kaplan-Meier curves and identify the optimal intervention time against the user churning process. Meanwhile, the proposed model provides individual-level heterogeneity analysis, which emphasizes the significance of customizing user engagement strategies, advocating for interventions that extend users’ engagement in patterns with high-frequency transit usage to curb the transition to less frequent travel usage.