用于预测非 ST 段抬高急性心肌梗死非糖尿病患者院内死亡率的提名图模型的开发与验证。

IF 2.3 4区 医学 Q2 HEMATOLOGY
Panpan Li, Wensen Yao, Jingjing Wu, Yating Gao, Xueyuan Zhang, Wei Hu
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引用次数: 0

摘要

非 ST 段抬高型急性心肌梗死(NSTEMI)是一种危及生命、预后不良的临床急症。然而,目前还没有个性化的提名图模型来识别可能死亡的 NSTEMI 高危患者。本研究旨在开发一种 NSTEMI 患者院内死亡率提名图,以便于对患者进行快速风险分层。本研究共纳入了 774 名非糖尿病 NSTEMI 患者。采用最小绝对收缩和选择操作器回归法初步筛选潜在的预测因素。进行单变量和多变量逻辑回归(逆向逐步选择)分析,以确定预测模型的最佳预测因子。根据这些预测因子构建了相应的提名图。接受者操作特征曲线、GiViTI 校准图和决策曲线分析(DCA)被用来评估提名图的性能。由以下六个预测因子组成的提名图模型:年龄(OR = 1.10;95% CI:1.05-1.15)、血尿素氮(OR = 1.06;95% CI:1.00-1.12)、白蛋白(OR = 0.93;95% CI:0.87-1.00)、甘油三酯(OR = 1.41;95% CI:1.09-2.00)、D-二聚体(OR = 1.39;95% CI:1.06-1.80)和阿司匹林(OR = 0.16;95% CI:0.06-0.42)。该提名图具有良好的区分度(曲线下面积 (AUC) = 0.89,95% CI:0.84-0.94)、校准性和临床实用性。在这项研究中,我们根据常见的临床指标建立了一个预测 NSTEMI 患者院内死亡率的提名图模型。所提出的提名图性能良好,可对 NSTEMI 患者进行快速风险分层。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Development and Validation of a Nomogram Model for Predicting in-Hospital Mortality in non-Diabetic Patients with non-ST-Segment Elevation Acute Myocardial Infarction.

Non-ST-segment elevation acute myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) is a life-threatening clinical emergency with a poor prognosis. However, there are no individualized nomogram models to identify patients at high risk of NSTEMI who may undergo death. The aim of this study was to develop a nomogram for in-hospital mortality in patients with NSTEMI to facilitate rapid risk stratification of patients. A total of 774 non-diabetic patients with NSTEMI were included in this study. Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator regression was used to initially screen potential predictors. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression (backward stepwise selection) analyses were performed to identify the optimal predictors for the prediction model. The corresponding nomogram was constructed based on those predictors. The receiver operating characteristic curve, GiViTI calibration plot, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the performance of the nomogram. The nomogram model consisting of six predictors: age (OR = 1.10; 95% CI: 1.05-1.15), blood urea nitrogen (OR = 1.06; 95% CI: 1.00-1.12), albumin (OR = 0.93; 95% CI: 0.87-1.00), triglyceride (OR = 1.41; 95% CI: 1.09-2.00), D-dimer (OR = 1.39; 95% CI: 1.06-1.80), and aspirin (OR = 0.16; 95% CI: 0.06-0.42). The nomogram had good discrimination (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.89, 95% CI: 0.84-0.94), calibration, and clinical usefulness. In this study, we developed a nomogram model to predict in-hospital mortality in patients with NSTEMI based on common clinical indicators. The proposed nomogram has good performance, allowing rapid risk stratification of patients with NSTEMI.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
4.40
自引率
3.40%
发文量
150
审稿时长
2 months
期刊介绍: CATH is a peer-reviewed bi-monthly journal that addresses the practical clinical and laboratory issues involved in managing bleeding and clotting disorders, especially those related to thrombosis, hemostasis, and vascular disorders. CATH covers clinical trials, studies on etiology, pathophysiology, diagnosis and treatment of thrombohemorrhagic disorders.
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