Simiao Chen, Zhong Cao, Arindam Nandi, Nathaniel Counts, Lirui Jiao, Klaus Prettner, Michael Kuhn, Benjamin Seligman, Daniel Tortorice, Daniel Vigo, Chen Wang, David E Bloom
{"title":"阿尔茨海默病和其他痴呆症的全球宏观经济负担:对 152 个国家或地区的估计和预测。","authors":"Simiao Chen, Zhong Cao, Arindam Nandi, Nathaniel Counts, Lirui Jiao, Klaus Prettner, Michael Kuhn, Benjamin Seligman, Daniel Tortorice, Daniel Vigo, Chen Wang, David E Bloom","doi":"10.1016/S2214-109X(24)00264-X","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (ADODs) severely threaten the wellbeing of older people, their families, and communities, especially with projected exponential growth. Understanding the macroeconomic implications of ADODs for policy making is essential but under-researched.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We used a health-augmented macroeconomic model to calculate the macroeconomic burden of ADODs for 152 countries or territories, accounting for: the effect on labour supply of reduced working hours of informal caregivers; the effect on labour supply of ADODs-related mortality and morbidity; age-sex-specific differences in education, work experience, labour market participations, and informal caregivers; and treatment and formal care costs diverting from savings and investments.</p><p><strong>Findings: </strong>ADODs will cost the world economy 14 513 billion international dollars (INT$, measured in the base year 2020; 95% uncertainty interval [UI] 12 106-17 778) from 2020 to 2050, equivalent to 0·421% (95% UI 0·351-0·515) of annual global GDP. Japan incurs the largest annual GDP loss at 1·463% (1·225-1·790). China (INT$2961 billion [2507-3564]), the USA (INT$2331 billion [1989-2829]), and Japan (INT$1758 billion [1471-2150]) face the largest absolute economic burdens. The economic burden of informal care ranges from 60·97% in high-income countries to 85·45% in lower-middle-income countries, and treatment and formal care costs range from 10·50% in lower-middle-income countries to 30·80% in high-income countries.</p><p><strong>Interpretation: </strong>The macroeconomic burden of ADODs is substantial and unequally distributed across countries and regions. Global efforts to reduce the burden, especially with regard to informal care, are urgently needed.</p><p><strong>Funding: </strong>National Institute on Aging, National Institutes of Health; Chinese Academy of Engineering; Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; Davos Alzheimer's Collaborative through Data for Decisions.</p>","PeriodicalId":48783,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Global Health","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":19.9000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"The global macroeconomic burden of Alzheimer's disease and other dementias: estimates and projections for 152 countries or territories.\",\"authors\":\"Simiao Chen, Zhong Cao, Arindam Nandi, Nathaniel Counts, Lirui Jiao, Klaus Prettner, Michael Kuhn, Benjamin Seligman, Daniel Tortorice, Daniel Vigo, Chen Wang, David E Bloom\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/S2214-109X(24)00264-X\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (ADODs) severely threaten the wellbeing of older people, their families, and communities, especially with projected exponential growth. Understanding the macroeconomic implications of ADODs for policy making is essential but under-researched.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We used a health-augmented macroeconomic model to calculate the macroeconomic burden of ADODs for 152 countries or territories, accounting for: the effect on labour supply of reduced working hours of informal caregivers; the effect on labour supply of ADODs-related mortality and morbidity; age-sex-specific differences in education, work experience, labour market participations, and informal caregivers; and treatment and formal care costs diverting from savings and investments.</p><p><strong>Findings: </strong>ADODs will cost the world economy 14 513 billion international dollars (INT$, measured in the base year 2020; 95% uncertainty interval [UI] 12 106-17 778) from 2020 to 2050, equivalent to 0·421% (95% UI 0·351-0·515) of annual global GDP. Japan incurs the largest annual GDP loss at 1·463% (1·225-1·790). China (INT$2961 billion [2507-3564]), the USA (INT$2331 billion [1989-2829]), and Japan (INT$1758 billion [1471-2150]) face the largest absolute economic burdens. The economic burden of informal care ranges from 60·97% in high-income countries to 85·45% in lower-middle-income countries, and treatment and formal care costs range from 10·50% in lower-middle-income countries to 30·80% in high-income countries.</p><p><strong>Interpretation: </strong>The macroeconomic burden of ADODs is substantial and unequally distributed across countries and regions. Global efforts to reduce the burden, especially with regard to informal care, are urgently needed.</p><p><strong>Funding: </strong>National Institute on Aging, National Institutes of Health; Chinese Academy of Engineering; Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; Davos Alzheimer's Collaborative through Data for Decisions.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":48783,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Lancet Global Health\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":19.9000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-09-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Lancet Global Health\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(24)00264-X\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Lancet Global Health","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(24)00264-X","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH","Score":null,"Total":0}
The global macroeconomic burden of Alzheimer's disease and other dementias: estimates and projections for 152 countries or territories.
Background: Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (ADODs) severely threaten the wellbeing of older people, their families, and communities, especially with projected exponential growth. Understanding the macroeconomic implications of ADODs for policy making is essential but under-researched.
Methods: We used a health-augmented macroeconomic model to calculate the macroeconomic burden of ADODs for 152 countries or territories, accounting for: the effect on labour supply of reduced working hours of informal caregivers; the effect on labour supply of ADODs-related mortality and morbidity; age-sex-specific differences in education, work experience, labour market participations, and informal caregivers; and treatment and formal care costs diverting from savings and investments.
Findings: ADODs will cost the world economy 14 513 billion international dollars (INT$, measured in the base year 2020; 95% uncertainty interval [UI] 12 106-17 778) from 2020 to 2050, equivalent to 0·421% (95% UI 0·351-0·515) of annual global GDP. Japan incurs the largest annual GDP loss at 1·463% (1·225-1·790). China (INT$2961 billion [2507-3564]), the USA (INT$2331 billion [1989-2829]), and Japan (INT$1758 billion [1471-2150]) face the largest absolute economic burdens. The economic burden of informal care ranges from 60·97% in high-income countries to 85·45% in lower-middle-income countries, and treatment and formal care costs range from 10·50% in lower-middle-income countries to 30·80% in high-income countries.
Interpretation: The macroeconomic burden of ADODs is substantial and unequally distributed across countries and regions. Global efforts to reduce the burden, especially with regard to informal care, are urgently needed.
Funding: National Institute on Aging, National Institutes of Health; Chinese Academy of Engineering; Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; Davos Alzheimer's Collaborative through Data for Decisions.
期刊介绍:
The Lancet Global Health is an online publication that releases monthly open access (subscription-free) issues.Each issue includes original research, commentary, and correspondence.In addition to this, the publication also provides regular blog posts.
The main focus of The Lancet Global Health is on disadvantaged populations, which can include both entire economic regions and marginalized groups within prosperous nations.The publication prefers to cover topics related to reproductive, maternal, neonatal, child, and adolescent health; infectious diseases (including neglected tropical diseases); non-communicable diseases; mental health; the global health workforce; health systems; surgery; and health policy.