Cynthia Chen, Gregory Ang, Katika Akksilp, Jemima Koh, J Anthony G Scott, Andrew Clark, Mark Jit
{"title":"重新评估在 112 个低收入和中等收入国家为 5 岁以下儿童接种肺炎球菌结合疫苗的影响和成本效益：一项模型研究。","authors":"Cynthia Chen, Gregory Ang, Katika Akksilp, Jemima Koh, J Anthony G Scott, Andrew Clark, Mark Jit","doi":"10.1016/S2214-109X(24)00232-8","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Streptococcus pneumoniae has been estimated to cause 9·18 million cases of pneumococcal pneumonia, meningitis, and invasive non-pneumonia non-meningitis disease and 318 000 deaths among children younger than 5 years in 2015. We estimated the potential impact and cost-effectiveness of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) introduction.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We updated our existing pseudodynamic model to estimate the impact of 13-valent PCV (PCV13) in 112 low-income and middle-income countries by adapting our previously published pseudodynamic model with new country-specific evidence on vaccine coverage, burden, and post-introduction vaccine impact from WHO-UNICEF estimates of national immunisation coverage and a global burden study. Deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and cases averted were estimated for children younger than 5 years born between 2000 and 2030. We used specific PCV coverage in each country and a hypothetical scenario in which coverage increased to diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTP) levels. We conducted probabilistic uncertainty analyses.</p><p><strong>Findings: </strong>Using specific vaccine coverage in countries, we estimated that PCV13 could prevent 697 000 (95% credibility interval 359 000-1 040 000) deaths, 46·0 (24·0-68·9) million DALYs, and 131 (89·0-172) million cases in 112 countries between 2000 and 2030. PCV was estimated to prevent 5·3% of pneumococcal deaths in children younger than 5 years during 2000-30. The incremental cost of vaccination would be I$851 (510-1530) per DALY averted. If PCV coverage were increased to DTP coverage in 2020, PCV13 could prevent an additional 146 000 (75 500-219 000) deaths.</p><p><strong>Interpretation: </strong>The inclusion of real-world evidence from lower-income settings revealed that delays in PCV roll-out globally and low PCV coverage have cost many lives. Countries with delays in vaccine introduction or low vaccine coverage have experienced many PCV-preventable deaths. These findings underscore the importance of rapidly scaling up PCV to achieve high coverage and maximise vaccine impact.</p><p><strong>Funding: </strong>Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance.</p>","PeriodicalId":48783,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Global Health","volume":"12 9","pages":"e1485-e1497"},"PeriodicalIF":19.9000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11345449/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Re-evaluating the impact and cost-effectiveness of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine introduction in 112 low-income and middle-income countries in children younger than 5 years: a modelling study.\",\"authors\":\"Cynthia Chen, Gregory Ang, Katika Akksilp, Jemima Koh, J Anthony G Scott, Andrew Clark, Mark Jit\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/S2214-109X(24)00232-8\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Streptococcus pneumoniae has been estimated to cause 9·18 million cases of pneumococcal pneumonia, meningitis, and invasive non-pneumonia non-meningitis disease and 318 000 deaths among children younger than 5 years in 2015. We estimated the potential impact and cost-effectiveness of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) introduction.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We updated our existing pseudodynamic model to estimate the impact of 13-valent PCV (PCV13) in 112 low-income and middle-income countries by adapting our previously published pseudodynamic model with new country-specific evidence on vaccine coverage, burden, and post-introduction vaccine impact from WHO-UNICEF estimates of national immunisation coverage and a global burden study. Deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and cases averted were estimated for children younger than 5 years born between 2000 and 2030. We used specific PCV coverage in each country and a hypothetical scenario in which coverage increased to diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTP) levels. We conducted probabilistic uncertainty analyses.</p><p><strong>Findings: </strong>Using specific vaccine coverage in countries, we estimated that PCV13 could prevent 697 000 (95% credibility interval 359 000-1 040 000) deaths, 46·0 (24·0-68·9) million DALYs, and 131 (89·0-172) million cases in 112 countries between 2000 and 2030. PCV was estimated to prevent 5·3% of pneumococcal deaths in children younger than 5 years during 2000-30. The incremental cost of vaccination would be I$851 (510-1530) per DALY averted. If PCV coverage were increased to DTP coverage in 2020, PCV13 could prevent an additional 146 000 (75 500-219 000) deaths.</p><p><strong>Interpretation: </strong>The inclusion of real-world evidence from lower-income settings revealed that delays in PCV roll-out globally and low PCV coverage have cost many lives. Countries with delays in vaccine introduction or low vaccine coverage have experienced many PCV-preventable deaths. These findings underscore the importance of rapidly scaling up PCV to achieve high coverage and maximise vaccine impact.</p><p><strong>Funding: </strong>Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":48783,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Lancet Global Health\",\"volume\":\"12 9\",\"pages\":\"e1485-e1497\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":19.9000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-09-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11345449/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Lancet Global Health\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(24)00232-8\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Lancet Global Health","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(24)00232-8","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH","Score":null,"Total":0}
Re-evaluating the impact and cost-effectiveness of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine introduction in 112 low-income and middle-income countries in children younger than 5 years: a modelling study.
Background: Streptococcus pneumoniae has been estimated to cause 9·18 million cases of pneumococcal pneumonia, meningitis, and invasive non-pneumonia non-meningitis disease and 318 000 deaths among children younger than 5 years in 2015. We estimated the potential impact and cost-effectiveness of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) introduction.
Methods: We updated our existing pseudodynamic model to estimate the impact of 13-valent PCV (PCV13) in 112 low-income and middle-income countries by adapting our previously published pseudodynamic model with new country-specific evidence on vaccine coverage, burden, and post-introduction vaccine impact from WHO-UNICEF estimates of national immunisation coverage and a global burden study. Deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and cases averted were estimated for children younger than 5 years born between 2000 and 2030. We used specific PCV coverage in each country and a hypothetical scenario in which coverage increased to diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTP) levels. We conducted probabilistic uncertainty analyses.
Findings: Using specific vaccine coverage in countries, we estimated that PCV13 could prevent 697 000 (95% credibility interval 359 000-1 040 000) deaths, 46·0 (24·0-68·9) million DALYs, and 131 (89·0-172) million cases in 112 countries between 2000 and 2030. PCV was estimated to prevent 5·3% of pneumococcal deaths in children younger than 5 years during 2000-30. The incremental cost of vaccination would be I$851 (510-1530) per DALY averted. If PCV coverage were increased to DTP coverage in 2020, PCV13 could prevent an additional 146 000 (75 500-219 000) deaths.
Interpretation: The inclusion of real-world evidence from lower-income settings revealed that delays in PCV roll-out globally and low PCV coverage have cost many lives. Countries with delays in vaccine introduction or low vaccine coverage have experienced many PCV-preventable deaths. These findings underscore the importance of rapidly scaling up PCV to achieve high coverage and maximise vaccine impact.
Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance.
期刊介绍：
The Lancet Global Health is an online publication that releases monthly open access (subscription-free) issues.Each issue includes original research, commentary, and correspondence.In addition to this, the publication also provides regular blog posts.
The main focus of The Lancet Global Health is on disadvantaged populations, which can include both entire economic regions and marginalized groups within prosperous nations.The publication prefers to cover topics related to reproductive, maternal, neonatal, child, and adolescent health; infectious diseases (including neglected tropical diseases); non-communicable diseases; mental health; the global health workforce; health systems; surgery; and health policy.
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