确定石勒苏益格-荷尔斯泰因波罗的海沿岸的暴露指数

IF 2.6 3区 地球科学 Q2 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在德国石勒苏益格-荷尔斯泰因波罗的海沿岸开发了风暴露指数(EI),以显示高度动 态的海岸带(即潜在的侵蚀热点)。该方法采用三个步骤来确定更准确的侵蚀指数。首先,通过分析分布在整个相关区域的四个站点 2000 年至 2019 年的实测风数据,确定一个与长期数据具有相似物理特征的代表性风年(RWY)。通过统计比较夏季至夏季全年风速与总体数据之间的 5 个等级和 36 个方向扇形的风速,确定了代表性风年。选定的 RWY 时间跨度为 2016 年 9 月 1 日至 2017 年 8 月 31 日,与总体数据显示出合理的一致性(Skill = 0.77 和 rmsd = 0.56 m/s)。接下来,利用 Delft3D 中两个域的模型嵌套方法预测了 RWY 上的高时空近岸流体力学。预测的近岸水动力与测量数据相当吻合(R2:水位为 0.87-0.90,波高为 0.75-0.86)。最后,近岸区域(MSL 深度 5 米以内)的预测水位和波高时间序列被用于 EI 分析,采用两步程序捕捉时间序列的短期和长期相关性以及季节性长程依赖性。这种方法可以模拟两个参数极端值的聚类行为,并提供合理的沿 SH 海岸的 EI。暴露区的 EI 值较高(例如,费马恩东部为 1),而遮蔽区和海湾的 EI 值较低 (例如,埃肯福德海湾为 0)。EI 越高,海岸动力就越强,因此预计会出现强烈的侵蚀。在这种情 况下,可以认为,在沿岸生态系统中,EI 是最重要的参数,因为它决定着沿岸的水动力。因此,根据近岸流体力学定义 EI,可以准确地反映沿岸系统的局部物理动因。所开发的方法可用于任何海岸,并为海岸管理者提供有关潜在侵蚀区域的有用信息。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Defining an exposure index along the Schleswig-Holstein Baltic Sea coast

A wind exposure index (EI), which indicates the main physical driver of a coastal system, was developed along the Schleswig-Holstein Baltic Sea (SH) coast – Germany, to demonstrate the highly dynamic coastal stretches (i.e., potential erosion hotspots). The approach used three steps to define more accurate EIs. Initially, a representative wind year (RWY), which has similar physical characteristics as in the long-term data, was defined by analysing measured wind data from 2000 to 2019 at four stations distributed in the entire area of interest. The RWY was identified by a statistical comparison of wind speeds in 5 classes and 36 directional sectors between summer to summer yearly wind and the overall data. The selected RWY spanned from 01.09.2016 to 31.08.2017 and showed a reasonable agreement with the overall data (Skill = 0.77 and rmsd = 0.56 m/s). Next, high spatiotemporal nearshore hydrodynamics over the RWY were predicted using a model nesting approach of two domains in Delft3D. The predicted nearshore hydrodynamics indicated fair agreements with the measured data (R2: 0.87–0.90 for water levels and 0.75–0.86 for wave heights). Finally, the predicted water level and wave height time series in the nearshore area (∼ 5 m MSL depth) were used for the analysis of the EI adopting a 2-step procedure capturing short- and long-term correlations as well as seasonal long-range dependencies of the time series. This approach allows to model the clustering behaviour of extreme values of both parameters and provides reasonable EIs along the SH coast. The exposed areas display high EIs (e.g., 1 at the east of Fehmarn), while sheltered areas and bays have low values (e.g., 0 at Eckernförde Bay). The higher the EI the stronger the coastal dynamics and thus strong erosion can be expected. Interestingly, the EI varies considerably even along the exposed coastal stretches with long fetches, which indicates the sensitivity of the EI to the local morphology, which determines the nearshore hydrodynamics. Therefore, a definition of the EI based on nearshore hydrodynamics provides an accurate index of local physical drivers of a coastal system. The developed approach can be adopted to any coast, and provides useful information on the potential erosion areas for the coastal managers.

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来源期刊
Marine Geology
Marine Geology 地学-地球科学综合
CiteScore
6.10
自引率
6.90%
发文量
175
审稿时长
21.9 weeks
期刊介绍: Marine Geology is the premier international journal on marine geological processes in the broadest sense. We seek papers that are comprehensive, interdisciplinary and synthetic that will be lasting contributions to the field. Although most papers are based on regional studies, they must demonstrate new findings of international significance. We accept papers on subjects as diverse as seafloor hydrothermal systems, beach dynamics, early diagenesis, microbiological studies in sediments, palaeoclimate studies and geophysical studies of the seabed. We encourage papers that address emerging new fields, for example the influence of anthropogenic processes on coastal/marine geology and coastal/marine geoarchaeology. We insist that the papers are concerned with the marine realm and that they deal with geology: with rocks, sediments, and physical and chemical processes affecting them. Papers should address scientific hypotheses: highly descriptive data compilations or papers that deal only with marine management and risk assessment should be submitted to other journals. Papers on laboratory or modelling studies must demonstrate direct relevance to marine processes or deposits. The primary criteria for acceptance of papers is that the science is of high quality, novel, significant, and of broad international interest.
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