The extended impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on long-term care residents in Medicare with frailty or dual Medicaid enrollment

Background

Although many healthcare settings have since returned to pre-pandemic levels of operation, long-term care (LTC) facilities have experienced extended and significant changes to operations, including unprecedented levels of short staffing and facility closures, that may have a detrimental effect on resident outcomes. This study assessed the pandemic's extended effect on outcomes for LTC residents, comparing outcomes 1 and 2 years after the start of the pandemic to pre-pandemic times, with special focus on residents with frailty and dually enrolled in Medicare and Medicaid.

Methods

Using Medicare claims data from January 1, 2018, through December 31, 2022, we ran over-dispersed Poisson models to compare the monthly adjusted rates of emergency department use, hospitalization, and mortality among LTC residents, comparing residents with and without frailty and dually enrolled and non-dually enrolled residents.

Results

Two years after the start of the pandemic, adjusted emergency department (ED) and hospitalization rates were lower and adjusted mortality rates were higher compared with pre-pandemic years for all examined subgroups. For example, compared with 2018–2019, 2022 ED visit rates for dually enrolled residents were 0.89 times lower, hospitalization rates were 0.87 times lower, and mortality rates were 1.17 higher; 2022 ED visit rates for frail residents were 0.85 times lower, hospitalization rates were 0.83 times lower, and mortality rates were 1.21 higher.

Conclusions

In 2022, emergency department and hospital utilization rates among long-term residents were lower than pre-pandemic levels and mortality rates were higher than pre-pandemic levels. These findings suggest that the pandemic has had an extended impact on outcomes for LTC residents.