Monitoring and forecasting desertification and land degradation using remote sensing and machine learning techniques in Sistan plain, Iran

Monitoring and predicting desertification in arid regions are crucial for addressing environmental and societal challenges. Remote sensing is vital for tracking land surfaces and ecosystems changes. The study aims to use remote sensing-based data to monitor and predict desertification in the Sistan Plain through a data screening approach. The study's satellite data consisted of Landsat 5 and 8 images taken in June each year over 10 years (1990–2020). Remote sensing-based indices, including land use and land cover (LULC) map, normalized differential vegetation index (NDVI), improved vegetation index (EVI), vegetation condition index (VCI), surface temperature condition index (TCI), modified normalized differential water level index (MNDWI) and salinity index (SI) were used in the study. In addition to satellite data, environmental indices, including standardized precipitation index (SPI) and streamflow drought index (SDI), were used. The study employed the random forest (RF) method and the mixed model of automated cells and Markov chain (CA-Markov) to monitor desertification and quantitatively predict its condition in 2030. Root-mean-square error (RMSE) and mean-square error (MSE) indicators were used to evaluate the error. Based on the findings, the RF correlation coefficient (R2) and RMSE were obtained about 0.97 and 0.08, respectively. High coefficient values and low RMSE values indicate that the random forest model is highly efficient in assessing desertification for the study period from 1990 to 2020. The change detection method revealed that desertification increased from 1990 to 2010 but decreased from 2010 to 2020. The decreasing trend is expected to continue until 2030. The Kappa coefficient for the prediction of desertification in 2030 was found to be 0.94, which indicates a correct classification based on the collected samples. In addition, the study identified the SI and SDI as effective indices in the desertification process in the study area. Overall, this study provides valuable insights into monitoring and predicting desertification, which could help develop appropriate strategies for managing and controlling desertification in the Sistan Plain through remote sensing and machine learning techniques.