Peri-urban dynamics: assessing expansion patterns and influencing factors

Peri-urbanization, the expansion of large metropolitan centers into adjacent peri-urban regions, is a growing concern due to land scarcity and escalating housing costs. These zones, a blend of rural and urban features, blur the line between urban and rural areas, creating new landscapes. This study examines historical, present, and potential growth trends in the peri-urban area surrounding Durgapur Municipal Corporation (DMC). Analytical techniques and spatial metrics are used to track development intensity changes over time, including built-up density, Shannon’s entropy, Landscape expansion index, Average Weighted Mean Expansion Index, Annual Built-Up Expansion Rate, Built-Up Expansion Intensity Index, and Built-Up Expansion Difference Index. Landscape indices like Patch Density, Edge Density, Landscape Shape Index, Largest Patch Index, Ratio of Open Space, and Area Weighted Mean Patch Fractal are used to understand fragmentation, connectivity, and spatial relationships. The Logistic Regression Model (LRM) is used to identify influencing factors and CA-Markov modeling for future built-up areas. Between 1991 and 2001, built-up area in the region increased significantly, primarily due to urban development near industrial zones, roadways, and mining areas. The growth was primarily concentrated in the western sector and near National Highway-2 (NH-2). Urban sprawl was a continuous trend, with the highest built-up density in the South-South-East (SSE) direction from 1991 to 2011. Additionally, a key determinant of built-up development was the distance to the city core. By 2031, the built-up area is expected to concentrate in the western and southeast regions, reaching 177.90 km2. This expansion is attributed to urban development near industrial zones, roadways, mining areas, and other infrastructure. The study identifies distance to the city center as a significant influencing factor for built-up development. The results emphasize the need for inclusive urban planning methods prioritizing sustainable development principles and prudent resource management for future growth and efficient management in the DMC’s peri-urban area.