从物理气候故事情节到南美洲中部皮尔科马约盆地适应环境风险设想方案

IF 2.5 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Guillermo Germán Joosten, Julia Mindlin, Jonas Østergaard Nielsen, Luis María de la Cruz, Marina Sardi, Claudia Valeggia
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引用次数: 0

摘要

向不同的利益相关者传达气候变化预测并解决他们关心的问题,对于促进有效的气候适应至关重要。本文探讨了如何将故事情节预测作为一种中间技术,在皮尔科马约盆地的气候科学与当地知识之间架起一座桥梁。通过实地考察和与不同利益相关者的访谈,确定了受气候变化影响的主要环境问题。以预测为基础编制区域气候信息的传统方法往往与当地社区缺乏关联性,无法明确解决他们所关注的问题。通过采用故事情节法评估气候预测,并区分流域上游和中下游地区,重点关注旱季(冬季)和雨季(夏季),确定了三种不同质量的降水和温度合理变化故事情节,并与主要潜在风险相关联。通过将这些气候结果与当地知识相结合,总结出了与每个故事情节相关的社会和环境影响,形成了三种未来环境变化的合理情景。分析表明,气候变化对该地区的现有问题和活动产生了重大影响。预测趋势表明,气候将向更温暖、更干旱的方向转变,不确定因素主要围绕夏季降雨,这影响了洪水增加和河道变化的概率,而这正是该地区最令人担忧的两个问题。这些发现为针对具体问题的调查奠定了基础,有助于为地区气候适应做出明智决策。最后,我们强调了在制定气候变化预测和适应战略时考虑当地问题的重要性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

From physical climate storylines to environmental risk scenarios for adaptation in the Pilcomayo Basin, central South America

From physical climate storylines to environmental risk scenarios for adaptation in the Pilcomayo Basin, central South America

Communicating climate change projections to diverse stakeholders and addressing their concerns is crucial for fostering effective climate adaptation. This paper explores the use of storyline projections as an intermediate technology that bridges the gap between climate science and local knowledge in the Pilcomayo basin. Through fieldwork and interviews with different stakeholders, key environmental concerns influenced by climate change were identified. Traditional approaches to produce regional climate information based on projections often lack relevance to local communities and fail to address their concerns explicitly. By means of storylines approach to evaluate climate projections and by differentiating between upper and middle-lower basin regions and focusing on dry (winter) and rainy (summer) seasons, three qualitatively different storylines of plausible precipitation and temperature changes were identified and related to the main potential risks. By integrating these climate results with local knowledge, a summary of the social and environmental impacts related to each storyline was produced, resulting in three narrated plausible scenarios for future environmental change. The analysis revealed that climate change significantly influences existing issues and activities in the region. Projected trends indicate a shift towards warmer and drier conditions, with uncertainties mainly surrounding summer rainfall, which impacts the probability of increased flooding and river course changes, two of the most concerning issues in the region. These findings serve as a foundation for problem-specific investigations and contribute to informed decision-making for regional climate adaptation. Finally, we highlight the importance of considering local concerns when developing climate change projections and adaptation strategies.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
6.60
自引率
0.00%
发文量
50
审稿时长
3 months
期刊介绍: The Earth''s biosphere is being transformed by various anthropogenic activities. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change addresses a wide range of environment, economic and energy topics and timely issues including global climate change, stratospheric ozone depletion, acid deposition, eutrophication of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, species extinction and loss of biological diversity, deforestation and forest degradation, desertification, soil resource degradation, land-use change, sea level rise, destruction of coastal zones, depletion of fresh water and marine fisheries, loss of wetlands and riparian zones and hazardous waste management. Response options to mitigate these threats or to adapt to changing environs are needed to ensure a sustainable biosphere for all forms of life. To that end, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change provides a forum to encourage the conceptualization, critical examination and debate regarding response options. The aim of this journal is to provide a forum to review, analyze and stimulate the development, testing and implementation of mitigation and adaptation strategies at regional, national and global scales. One of the primary goals of this journal is to contribute to real-time policy analysis and development as national and international policies and agreements are discussed and promulgated.
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