{"title":"基于温布尔登网球公开赛 2023 年赛事数据的动量捕捉和预测系统","authors":"Chang Liu, Tongyuan Yang, Yan Zhao","doi":"arxiv-2408.01544","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"There is a hidden energy in tennis, which cannot be seen or touched. It is\nthe force that controls the flow of the game and is present in all types of\nmatches. This mysterious force is Momentum. This study introduces an evaluation\nmodel that synergizes the Entropy Weight Method (EWM) and Gray Relation\nAnalysis (GRA) to quantify momentum's impact on match outcomes. Empirical\nvalidation was conducted through Mann-Whitney U and Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests,\nwhich yielded p values of 0.0043 and 0.00128,respectively. These results\nunderscore the non-random association between momentum shifts and match\noutcomes, highlighting the critical role of momentum in tennis. Otherwise, our\ninvestigation foucus is the creation of a predictive model that combines the\nadvanced machine learning algorithm XGBoost with the SHAP framework. This model\nenables precise predictions of match swings with exceptional accuracy (0.999013\nfor multiple matches and 0.992738 for finals). The model's ability to identify\nthe influence of specific factors on match dynamics,such as bilateral distance\nrun during points, demonstrates its prowess.The model's generalizability was\nthoroughly evaluated using datasets from the four Grand Slam tournaments. The\nresults demonstrate its remarkable adaptability to different match\nscenarios,despite minor variations in predictive accuracy. It offers strategic\ninsights that can help players effectively respond to opponents' shifts in\nmomentum,enhancing their competitive edge.","PeriodicalId":501172,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - STAT - Applications","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-08-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Momentum Capture and Prediction System Based on Wimbledon Open2023 Tournament Data\",\"authors\":\"Chang Liu, Tongyuan Yang, Yan Zhao\",\"doi\":\"arxiv-2408.01544\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"There is a hidden energy in tennis, which cannot be seen or touched. It is\\nthe force that controls the flow of the game and is present in all types of\\nmatches. This mysterious force is Momentum. This study introduces an evaluation\\nmodel that synergizes the Entropy Weight Method (EWM) and Gray Relation\\nAnalysis (GRA) to quantify momentum's impact on match outcomes. Empirical\\nvalidation was conducted through Mann-Whitney U and Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests,\\nwhich yielded p values of 0.0043 and 0.00128,respectively. These results\\nunderscore the non-random association between momentum shifts and match\\noutcomes, highlighting the critical role of momentum in tennis. Otherwise, our\\ninvestigation foucus is the creation of a predictive model that combines the\\nadvanced machine learning algorithm XGBoost with the SHAP framework. This model\\nenables precise predictions of match swings with exceptional accuracy (0.999013\\nfor multiple matches and 0.992738 for finals). The model's ability to identify\\nthe influence of specific factors on match dynamics,such as bilateral distance\\nrun during points, demonstrates its prowess.The model's generalizability was\\nthoroughly evaluated using datasets from the four Grand Slam tournaments. The\\nresults demonstrate its remarkable adaptability to different match\\nscenarios,despite minor variations in predictive accuracy. It offers strategic\\ninsights that can help players effectively respond to opponents' shifts in\\nmomentum,enhancing their competitive edge.\",\"PeriodicalId\":501172,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"arXiv - STAT - Applications\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-08-02\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"arXiv - STAT - Applications\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/arxiv-2408.01544\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"arXiv - STAT - Applications","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2408.01544","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
摘要
网球运动中隐藏着一种看不见、摸不着的能量。它是控制比赛流程的力量,存在于所有类型的比赛中。这种神秘的力量就是动量。本研究介绍了一种协同熵权法(EWM)和灰色关系分析法(GRA)的评估模型,以量化动量对比赛结果的影响。通过 Mann-Whitney U 和 Kolmogorov-Smirnov 检验进行了经验验证,得出的 p 值分别为 0.0043 和 0.00128。这些结果证明了动量变化与比赛结果之间的非随机关联,突出了动量在网球运动中的关键作用。此外,我们的研究重点是创建一个预测模型,该模型结合了先进的机器学习算法 XGBoost 和 SHAP 框架。该模型能够精确预测比赛的波动,准确率极高(多场比赛为 0.999013,决赛为 0.992738)。该模型能够识别特定因素对比赛动态的影响,例如得分时的双边距离,这充分证明了它的能力。我们使用四项大满贯赛事的数据集对该模型的通用性进行了全面评估。结果表明,尽管预测准确率略有不同,但该模型对不同比赛场景的适应性非常出色。它提供的战略洞察力可以帮助球员有效应对对手的动量变化,增强他们的竞争优势。
Momentum Capture and Prediction System Based on Wimbledon Open2023 Tournament Data
There is a hidden energy in tennis, which cannot be seen or touched. It is
the force that controls the flow of the game and is present in all types of
matches. This mysterious force is Momentum. This study introduces an evaluation
model that synergizes the Entropy Weight Method (EWM) and Gray Relation
Analysis (GRA) to quantify momentum's impact on match outcomes. Empirical
validation was conducted through Mann-Whitney U and Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests,
which yielded p values of 0.0043 and 0.00128,respectively. These results
underscore the non-random association between momentum shifts and match
outcomes, highlighting the critical role of momentum in tennis. Otherwise, our
investigation foucus is the creation of a predictive model that combines the
advanced machine learning algorithm XGBoost with the SHAP framework. This model
enables precise predictions of match swings with exceptional accuracy (0.999013
for multiple matches and 0.992738 for finals). The model's ability to identify
the influence of specific factors on match dynamics,such as bilateral distance
run during points, demonstrates its prowess.The model's generalizability was
thoroughly evaluated using datasets from the four Grand Slam tournaments. The
results demonstrate its remarkable adaptability to different match
scenarios,despite minor variations in predictive accuracy. It offers strategic
insights that can help players effectively respond to opponents' shifts in
momentum,enhancing their competitive edge.